The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy - May 2008

The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy - May 2008

The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Project An Adaptation Strategy For Climate Change 1 The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Team 2 Overview of the Kamloops TSA: 3 1. Four Major Licensees managing Approximately 2.7 million hectares. R Blue 2. Annual allowable timber harvest

2.7 million cubic metres Currently 4.3 million cubic metres to deal with pine beetle. 3. High degree of topographic and ecological diversity. Cache Creek Clearwater Barriere iver GOAL of the KFFS To Rationalize expectations and direction for

future forest management in the context of expected impacts of climate change. And hopefully avoid some surprises 4 Objectives of the KFFS 1. Understand potential climate change impacts on management values. 2. Design adaptive actions for:

Tree species for reforestation Harvesting priorities Other forest treatments 3. Design a vision for future forest conditions to sustain values and promote resilience. 4. Identify vulnerabilities, barriers, and info gaps.

5. Provide Recommendations to move forward. For Forest Company Licensees For the Ministry of Forests Executive 5 KFFS Multi-disciplinary/agency/stakeholder 6 involvement MFR MFR Kamloops Kamloops District District and

and Region Region info info session session 20-30 20-30 staff staff Min Min of of Environment Environment Info Info Session Session 33 staff staff BCTS BCTS S. S. Interior

Interior Info Info Session Session 50-60 50-60 staff staff TR University Info Session 5 staff UBC Advisory Session 3 staff MFR MFR Victoria Victoria Branch Branch Specialists Specialists

Advisory Advisory Session Session 55 staff staff SISCO SISCO Workshops Workshops 75 75 Summer Summer 40-50 40-50 Winter Winter KFFS KFFS TSA TSA team team Min

Min of of Forests Forests & & Range Range (MFR) (MFR) Executive Executive Symmetree Symmetree Support Support Team Team British British Forestry Forestry Commission

Commission 11 staff staff member member Conference Conference Board Board of of Canada Canada 28 28 on on leaders leaders round round table table BC BC FFEI FFEI Info

Info webcast webcast and and Planning Planning session session 100+ 100+ staff staff National National Forest Forest Adaptation Adaptation Strategy Strategy 22 staff staff KFFS KFFS will

will be be aa case case study study Pacific Pacific Climate Climate Impacts Impacts Consortium Consortium 1staff 1staff member member Ecological Ecological & & Management Management Sensitivity Sensitivity Workshops

Workshops 99 MFR MFR Regional Regional Specialists. Specialists. 44 MoE MoE Specialists Specialists 11 MFR District MFR District person person 33 Licensee Licensee practitioners practitioners 11 First First Nations Nations rep rep

22 University University professors professors 22 Other specialists Other specialists 7 8 Mapping impacts of climate change over time 9 Used ClimateBC to downscale GCM data, along with GIS tools and local ecological interpretation to: Express changes in future climates as changes in ecological subzoneclimates.

Explored the reclustering of new climate variables guided by current data. Ecologist judgments for boundary decisions and reasonable gradient of subzones Modeling Climate Change with ClimateBC 10 Added climate input files for two different Global Climate Models with divergent Global Emission Scenarios:

HadCM3-A1FI (Most Change / Worst Case Scenario) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction UK. Pessimistic view of future emissions current trend into the future. Predicts hottest driest summers. PCM-B1 (Least Change / Best Case Scenario) Atmospheric Research Program for Climate Modeling USA.

Optimistic that emissions will be significantly reduced. Predicts moderate summers. Northern Half of TSA Current Ecological Zonation 11 Northern Half of TSA Best Case in 2050 (PCM-B1) 12 Northern Half of TSA Worst Case in 2050 (Hadley A1FI)

13 14 Ecological Sensitivities 15 Ecological Narratives MSxk Bookend climate scenarios ECOLOGICAL SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP Kamloops Future Forest Strategy 2008 16 MSxk STANDS / ECOSYSTEMS In a changing climate 17 Ecological Sensitivity Assessment

PRODUCT = Ecological Narratives. Future Forest Conditions - IF WE CONTINUE TO MANAGE AS WE DO NOW. Changes in mature and old growth stands across the landscape. Changes in young stands across the landscapes Disturbance mechanisms 18

Ecological Sensitivities provide context for next steps 19 Summary with 5 BEC Subzone-Groups Dry Subzones with lodgepole pine Dry Subzones with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Subzones Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Subzones Cool/Cold & Wet Subzones - Too hot and dry after 2050 for lodgepole.

HIGH - Estimate 37% of landbase in young lodgepole - increased fire risk. HIGH - Continuing mortality in Doug-fir will thin out and open up stands. - Increased grassland patches. - Increased fire risk. MOD HIGH - Fd drops out of mixedwoods due to drought / root rot / D-fir beetle combo. - Lose considerable cedar, spruce and birch past 2050 - Increased fire risk.

MOD LOW - Increased growth in most species. - Beyond 2050 subalpine fir drops out, lodgepole at high risk, spruce questionable on some sites lower down. May see a few large fires. -Increased mortality in old growth - Increased growth in young stands - Weevil problems for young spruce. Management Sensitivities 20 GENERAL TRENDS - Management Sensitivities Summary with 5 Broad Ecological Zones SUBZONE GROUP

Dry forests with lodgepole pine Dry forests with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Forests Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Forests Cool/Cold & Wet Forests % of the TSA 28 Management

Sensitivity MOD-HIGH Summarized Rationale for Sensitivity 10 HIGH 26 MOD-HIGH 15 MOD

MINOR-MOD High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats and fish. Significant issues for water, interface, and First Nations culturally important plants. High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats and fish, water, fire in the urban interface, First Nations culturally important plants and visual quality. High impacts on timber. Significant issues on biodiversity, habitats and fish, water, fire in the urban interface, and visual quality

Moderate impact on timber, water and First Nations culturally important plants. Significant issues for some habitats and fish. 21 21 Minor timber concerns long term may be some short term benefits. Minor concerns for habitat, except for Caribou Significant concerns for water quality.

RESULTS: Management Sensitivities EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli Pine on marginal sites will become Nonproductive -shrinking the harvestable landbase. KEY Existing timber stands could take a huge hit: 30-40% of landbase will be in young pine post MPB. Expect widespread mortality again after 2050.

22 RESULTS: Management Sensitivities EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli 23 Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens: The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area. The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches.

To increase amount of invasive plants. RESULTS: Management Sensitivities EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli Will also impact species at risk, or of concern 24 Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens: The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the

area. The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches. To increase amount of invasive plants. Just a caution None of this is TRUE or REAL 25 BUT It is: Less unbelievable than assuming nothing will change.

Plausible- based on what we know now. 26 27 Adaptive Actions 28 Integrated Strategic Planning Targeted Harvesting Brinkman and Associates Planting different tree species

Other Stand Treatments EXAMPLE: Adaptive Actions OVERVIEW: Dry Subzones with Pli 29 Vision for the Future Forest Condition to 2080 1. The Future Forest, as influenced by KFFS Adaptive Actions. A story of different developing landscapes 2. The Conditions for each Key Management Value. With and without the KFFS. 30

The Future Forest The Timber Supply Picture 31 32 Vulnerabilities: Cedar-Hemlock to Doug-fir Transitional Forests 33 Vulnerability Vulnerability with with PARTIAL PARTIAL implementation implementation (Due (Due to

to barriers) barriers) Vulnerability Vulnerability with with FULL FULL implementation implementation (barriers (barriers removed) removed) RESULTS: General Management BARRIERS 1. There is no process to integrate strategically over the long term at multiple spatial scales. 2. Our current system encourages least cost silviculture. 3. Difficult to encourage licensees to harvest susceptible stands - if profit is marginal.

4. Difficult to manage throughout the life of the forest (beyond free-growing). 5. Licensees and the province are reluctant to take on more risk associated with forest management. 34 GENERAL TRENDS - Vulnerabilities Potential vs. Projected Management Vulnerability THE ENTIRE TSA Vulnerability Vulnerability with with FULL FULL implementation implementation (barriers

(barriers removed) removed) 35 Vulnerability Vulnerability with with PARTIAL PARTIAL implementation implementation (Due (Due to to barriers) barriers) THE POINT OF ALL THIS? 36

Climate Change underscores the need to significantly shift the way we manage our forests. Must heed warning signs OR? 37 RECOMMENDATIONS To address key barriers. To start implementation Recommendationsto: Start implementing management actions on the ground. Integrate into a strategic planning process Take the approach to the rest of BC

Address legislation and policy to remove barriers 38 What is next? Follow-up project 2009-2011 39 1. Use suggested direction regarding adaptive actions to more robust adaptive actions with modeling and scenario analysis. For key question regarding several overlapping values/issues (e.g. timber, biodiversity, interface fire risks, carbon). In a case study area or areas that include the most vulnerable landscapes.

2. Explore some sensitivities with the most uncertainties. To improve confidence and credibility in the need for adaptive actions. For more information: 40 KFFS webpage - http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm. (Google - Kamloops Future Forest Strategy) Ken Zielke ph. 604-921-6077 email : [email protected]

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