The Evolution of Personal Communications

The Evolution of Personal Communications

3G and Hot Spot Networking Dennis Roberson SVP CTO 1 World Market Trend (circ fall 2000) 1 Billion + Subscribers Market Size WIRELESS INTERNET 580 Million Subscribers 1 Billion Subscribers WIRELESS INTERNET 380 Million Subscribers 2000 2004 Source: Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola 2 Advertising in The Economist 100% 90% with Web address 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

0% Dec 94 Dec 95 Dec 96 Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99 3 Wireless Will Surpass Wired Access 10000 Subscribers [Millions] 1000 Wireless Voice Wired Voice 100 Wired Internet Wireless Internet 10 1 1997 1998 1999

2000* 2001* 2002* 2003* 2004* 2005* Source: Salomon Smith Barney, Motorola Estimates. *Estimate 4 Worldwide Cumulative Subscribers Cumulative Subscribers (Millions) 2,000 3G 1,500 1,000 2.5G 500 2G 2G 0 1G 1999 Source: Motorola Forecast 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2005 2006 5 Enhanced Devices New devices are being introduced Voice 3G Clam Voice Voice/Data Voice/Data/Image/ Video 3G Candybar Voice, Data, Video 3G Candybar Voice, Data iMode Voice, Data 3G Clam Voice, Data 3G Candybar Voice 2-Way Communicator Data/voice Card Phone PDA/PHS Data, Voice Mini Computer Data Embedded Data/Voice

Electronic Wallet Data 6 Wireless bandwidth is increasing... Increasing Value 4G Shared Environments 3.5G Mobile Television 3G Video On Demand Video Streaming 2.5G Still Imaging Audio Streaming 2G Data Transmission Speed - kbps E-Commerce Mobile Radio Text Messaging E-mail Voice 9.6 32

Mobile Video Conferencing 64 128 144 384 2,000 20->200K 7 Technology Evolution world GSM PDC U.S. iDEN EDGE NTT DoCoMo W-CDMA HSPDA cdma2000 1xEV-DV (1XTREME) AT &T

Japan GPRS U.S. U.S./Asia IS-136 IS-95A 2G iDEN packet data a re o K IS-95B 2.5G 3G 1xEV-DO (HDR) 8 The Promise of 3G 2,000 1G 2G 3G Video Streaming

Still Imaging Data Transmission Speed - k bps 384 Video Conference (High quality) Audio Streaming 144 Text Messaging 128 Video on Demand: Sports, News Weather Video Conference (Lower quality) Voice 64 32 Electronic Newspaper Voice Mail Fax JPEG Still Photos Mobile TV Image Viideo Surveillance, Video Mail, Travel E-Commerce

Electronic Publishing Karaoke Mobile Radio E-Mail 9.6 0 Remote Medical Service (image) Telephone Data (Voice) Weather, Traffic, News, Sports, Stock updates Audio Voice-driven Web Pages Streaming Audio 9 Technology Data Rates 2,000 1G 2G 3G Video Streaming WCDMA

Still Imaging Data Transmission Speed - k bps 384 EDGE Audio Streaming 144 cdma2000 Text Messaging 128 GPRS Voice 64 32 9.6 GSM, IS-136, IS-95A 0 10 User Peak Data Rate 11 What has happened to 3G Expectations? Expectations For Early 3G Deployment Slippage Limited WAP Of Success commercial

GPRS High Bumper Bumper UK German Licensing Licensing Spain Licensing With early TTM Industry Financial Impact Italian + Swiss Auction Failures Terminal Restrictions Huge New Entrant Interest Low Jan Jul Dec 2000 12 Evolution driven by 13 3G Challenges 14 2G Cellular Volume Deterioration 1200 ARC (06/01) Cahners (07/01)

Gartner/Dataquest (08/01) Duetche Bank (08/01) Merrill Lynch (09/01) UBS Warburg (09/01) Lehman Brothers (09/01) Motorola Shipments [Millions] 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

15 Cellular Subscriber Growth Mexico UnitedStates France Germany Italy Russia NordicCountries India Spain China U.K. Japan 300 Cellular Subscribers [M] Estimates 250 China 200 150 USA 100 Japan Germany Italy / UK

50 India 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 16 3G Spectrum Costs 8 Baskerville Forecast: Q200 7 6 Estimated 5 Cost per Licence 4 in $Bn 3 Raised Half Of expectations Raised only 20% Of expectations 2 Postponed

Because of lack of interest Raised only 33% of Expectations = Already Issued Before Forecast Auction Hybrid Finland Norway Spain Austria Austria Sweden Portugal Denmark Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Italy Italy France UK

0 Germany 1 Beauty Contest Actual Raised 17 3G Spectrum Availability 3G MSS* ITU 1885 1930 PHS Japan DCS 1800 Europe 1710 1785 1805 1880 1900 2010 2025 1850 Broadcast Auxiliary 1990 2200 MSS 2186 2200

3G 2025 1910 1930 2170 2110 MSS 2200 MSS 3G 2010 2025 Unl. PCS PCS A D B EF C A D B EF C 2170 2110 MSS PCS USA 2110 2120 3G 2010 2025 1885

MSS MSS* MSS 1996 3G China 1980 1980 3G DCS DECT 1800 MSS 3G 1885 1895 1918.1 3G * Region 2 2110 MSS 2200 Reserve 2110 2150 2200 All Frequencies in MHz 18

3G - Operator Slippages Original Plan Vodafone UK Nov-01 SK Telecom May-02 Telefonica Aug-01 Japan Telecom Nov-01 BT Cellnet Dec-01 France Telecom Feb-02 NTT May-01 Latest Plan Nov-02 May-03 Jul-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 H2-02 Oct-01* 2001 Q3 Q1 Japan Telecom BT Cellnet Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov May

Aug May July Nov Oct Dec France Telecom NTT Q2 2003 Nov SK Telecom Telefonica Publicly announced reason Handsets Handsets, infrastructure Licensing relaxation Gain 3GPP standards Infrastructure Handsets Handsets, software, interference 2002 Q4 Vodafone UK Slippage 12-16 months 12 months 11 months 8-11 months 10 months 5-10 months

6 months Sep Feb Sep/Oct Oct* Planned Launch Delay in Roll Out Revised Launch 19 Bandwidths Trends Compared (early adopters, highest bandwidths) 100,000,000,000 Internet Backbone 10,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 Home/WAN Office LAN 100,000,000 bps 10,000,000 1,000,000 WLAN 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 1960

Personal Wireless 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20 Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless (Mobile/Portable) 10,000,000,000 4G 1,000,000,000 100,000,000 bps 3.5G 10,000,000 3G 1,000,000 GPRS 100,000 2G 10,000 1,000 100 1960 1970

1980 1990 2000 2010 21 Wireless Data Trends Wide Area Btooth/802.15.3 HiperLAN2 Median2 IEEE 802.11 Max Data Rate (Kbps) 1000000 100000 WLAN (~Fixed) PAN (Nomadic) 10000 W-CDMA 1000 100 EDGE GPRS HSCD WAN (Fully Mobile) 10 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year 22 Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies

802.11b Enterprise 802.11a or HiperLAN2 Speed: 11 - 22Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, DSS HomeRF Broadband Home Speed: 22 - 100Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2 Speed: 1.1 Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH Bluetooth/802.15.1 Nomadic Speed: 700Kbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH 2000 Products: Vertical Driver: Competition 2001 Speed: 10 - 22 54 Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM

Bluetooth2 Products: Set-top box, etc Driver: Reduce setup costs new markets/services 802.15.3 Products: Cell-phones, etc Driver: Competition, Speed: 20+ Mbps new markets & products Speed: 2-10 Mbps Technology: 2.4 GHz Technology: 2.4GHz FH Strategy: Transistion to 5GHz WPAN; UWB 2002 *Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic technologies 2003 2004 All Speeds at RAW bandwidth. Delivered payload varies 23 Broadband Island Scenario Greater Washington DC Area Wide Area coverage Provided by 2G Carriers Mall area coverage provided by Verizon 2.5G GPRS Broadband

802.11x Pentagon, coverage provided by US Military Telecom Broadband 802.11x Broadband 802.11x Requires a multi-mode device (GPRS and 802.11) Requires a new billing model Reagan Airport, coverage provided by 3rd Party Vendor slide courtesy of Les Eastwood 24 Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model Level 3 - Regional Low Speed Wireless (56Kbps) R Level 2 - Campus High Speed Wireless LANs (100Mbps) Campus Level 1 - Personal Area Network (.510Mbps) 25 WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular (and Could Threaten 3G) Timeliness: 11Mbps available now

Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User Free Spectrum: 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum Low equipment cost Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer Superior End User Experience 54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s All existing and future Internet applications already work slide courtesy of Les Eastwood 26 WLAN & Cellular Convergence Is there opportunity here? WLAN Today High Speed Point Coverage Cellular Today Low Data Rate Wide Coverage Internet Local Access & Control Data Only No Roaming Private Network Technologies Geared toward Data in the Enterprise Technologies Geared toward Consumer Voice and Data Slow Data Rates Global Roaming High Speed Mobility Wireless 27

Integrate Cellular with WLAN iMGW Platform Enterprise or Hot Spot Common Features/Capabilities Authentication Billing Preferences/Call Control Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular) Nomadic Internet 802.11 Or Any WLAN Technology Benefits: Local Access, Common Control Data & Voice Point to Point Roaming VPN over Public Network Increasing Data Rates in More Places Seamless Roaming and Billing High Speed Mobility Home Technology Tailored for a Seamless Solution 28 Beyond 3G (B3G) 1980s 1G 1990s 2000s 2G

B3G key attributes: interworking and cooperation between different Radio Networks user as the focus, opportune delivery of the content/services multi-mode terminals free to camp on any available network 2010s 3G 4G WLAN Hotspots GPRS +802.11 UMTS + HiperLAN GPRS +DVB Cellular+ WLAN+ Bdcast fully IP based disruptive technology potentially complementary to 3G potentially competitive to 3G 29 B3G Vision Composite Service Delivery management (Billing, ) Management Functions

Composite Domain Management (mobility, QoS, multicast, AAA) Management domain DVB-T Composite Radio Ressource management (Spectrum utilization, links/traffic optimization) Ipv6 Backbone(s) Internet IPv4IPv6 Hiperlan2 AP GPRS UMTS Services A moving IP- subnet Main Attributes: Core network IPv6 based Better support of mobility, security and unlimited address space Wireless access points become IP gateways Different radio access technologies deployed within a domain Optimization of the radio resources 30 Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz BRAN/Hiperlan

5.15 - 5.35 Europe 200mW BRAN/Hiperlan 5.470 - 5.725 Licenseexempt 455 MHz 1W MMAC 5.15 - 5.25 Japan US 50mW 100 MHz U-NII 5.15 - 5.35 U-NII 5.725 -5.825 50mW 250mW 1W Unlicense d 300 MHz 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 31 5 GHz US: 12 ch. (300MHz)

EU: 19 ch. (455MHz) JP: 5 ch. (100MHz) 802.11b 4ch. (80MHz) 11Mbs/channel net bit rate First on market, market education Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum, interference) 802.11a 2.4 GHz 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate Simple and adapted to corporate apps Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for multimedia Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFS+TPC, security, roaming HiperLAN 2 WLAN Standards & Technologies 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM, 1394) Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe Better suited to Home & Multimedia applications 802.11a+e+h HL2 Japan is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN (NTT) for Home & Public IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach HiperLAN2 support of multimedia 32 Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN Economy/Industry Downturn Range

Consumer Confusion 22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions V O L U M E Technical Challenges Enabling Applications Cost Security 2.4 GHz interference Quality of Service Speed/Media needs Capacity collapse 2.4GHz TIME 33 Wireless System Landscape Mobility, Functions High Mobility speech, some data 1G Limited Mobility: Speech, data 2G 3G 4G Fixed Access, High speed data WLAN / PAN In-Home /

In-Building 1Kbps 10Kbps 100Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Data Rate to the User 34

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