State of the Budget - Colorado

State of the Budget - Colorado

Perspective on Colorados Economy and State Budget June 5, 2015 Office of State Planning and Budgeting Laura Blomquist Economist www.colorado.gov/ospb Agenda State of Colorados Economic Health TABOR FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17 Budgets 2 U.S and Colorado Jobs (2000 to 2015) 120 Foreca st 118 116 114 112 Colorado Jobs

Index 110 108 106 104 102 Jobs Nationally 100 98 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 1 1 1 1 1 1 The graph compares the change in the number of jobs nationally and in Colorado since January of 2000 using a three month moving average. Index: March 2000=100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. OSPB December 2014 Forecast. Includes OSPBs estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data that are currently not published. The jobs figures will be benchmarked based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in the state than what was estimated based on a survey of employers. 3

Growth in Jobs by Colorado Region, January 2010 through November 2014 18.0% 16.0% 15.6% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.2% 7.0% 5.8% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.3% 3.3%

3.3% Grand Junction Boulder CO Spgs 2.0% 0.0% Greeley DenverFt. Collins/LovelandPueblo Statewide Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Includes the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment's estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data. The estimates are based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in than has been estimated based on surveys of employers. 4 A TABOR Simile TABOR Limit Income and Sales taxes

Fees General Fund Cash Funds TABOR Refund Hospital Provider Fee, Severance Tax, and other TABOR Revenue and Referendum C $15 $120.4 million above cap in FY 2015-16 $316.6 million above cap in FY 2016-17 $14 $13 $216.2 million above cap in FY 2014-15 Billions of Dollars $12 $11 $10 $9

$8 $7 $6 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 -17 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Hospital Provider Fee Source: OSPB March 2015 Forecast

Severance Tax Other TABOR Revenue Referendum C Cap FY 2014-15 to FY 2015-16 Budget Changes Major General Fund Expenditure Changes FY 2014-15 Initial Appropriation vs. FY 2015-16 Initial Appropriation FY 2014-15 Original Appropriation FY 2015-16 Appropriation Difference from FY 2014-15 Original App. to FY 2015-16 App. Department of Health Care Policy and Financing 2,264,471,263 2,505,692,642

241,221,379 Department of Education 3,357,895,804 3,567,225,364 209,329,560 Department of Higher Education 761,983,052 856,759,158 94,776,106 Department of Corrections Governor - Lt. Governor - State Planning and Budgeting Overhead Increases / Employee Costs 720,429,597 766,755,184

46,325,587 34,366,530 41,197,668 49,673,386 6,831,138 49,673,386 Transfer to Capital Construction Fund 225,500,000 247,659,939 22,159,939 TABOR Refund - 340,200,000 340,200,000 Transfers to Highway Users Tax Fund

- 103,100,000 103,100,000 STATEWIDE 1,113,617,095 Medicaid Caseload Categories and Costs 8 Colorado State General Fund Revenue FY 2000-01 through FY 2015-16 Budget State Education Fund Money, Spending, and Reserves Under Governors Budget Request FY 2011-12 through FY 2015-16 ($ in Millions) Public School Finance: FY 12 to FY 17 Amendment 23 Target vs Funded Amounts by Source $8,000 $7,000

Millions $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $2,082 $2,050 $2,216 $2,277 $2,014 $2,105 $3,000 $2,000 $2,985 $3,181 $3,393

$3,694 $2,672 $2,852 $511 $340 $527 $670 $630 $490 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

FY 17 $1,000 $- SEF GF Other Am23 General Fund Overview with November 3, 2014 Budget Request ($ in Millions) For More Information Visit www.colorado.gov/ospb 14

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