Priorities in addressing economic a in addressing economic

Priorities in addressing  economic a in addressing  economic

Priorities in addressing economic a in addressing economic a addres in addressing economic as in addressing economic ain addressing economic ag economic a econ addressing economic aomic a n addressing economic ad fin addressing economic aan addressing economic acial shocks: Some Perspect s in addressing economic ahocks in addressing economic a: Some Perspect Some Pers in addressing economic apect ives in addressing economic a from As in addressing economic aia-Pacific LLDCs in addressing economic a Syed Nuruzzaman Chief Countries with Special Needs Section ESCAP Bas in addressing economic aic in addressing economic adicators in addressing economic a of s in addressing economic aocio-econ addressing economic aomic performan addressing economic ace of As in addressing economic aian addressing economic a LLDCs in addressing economic a AFG ARM AZE BHU KAZ KYR LAO MON NEP TAJ TUR UZB GDP, bln US$ 19.2 10.3

63.4 1.7 188.1 5.9 8.3 8.8 18.9 6.5 28.1 45.4 Population, mln 35.3 3.1 9.2 0.7 16.6 5.5 6.3 2.8

30.5 7 5.1 29.3 Population growth annual, % 2.7 0.2 1.2 1.6 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 Trade-GDP ratio, % 81

71 87 93 77 142 82 149 42 73 123 59 Net FDI inflows, US$ 83 664 4,485 16 13,227 694 301 4,715

94 11 3,187 1,403 Literacy rate 15+, % 100 100 52.8 99 97 60 100 100 99 Life expectancy at 49

74 71 68 67 68 68 69 69 68 65 68 Under 5 mortality rate, 1,000 live births 101 18 45 54 28 31 42

31 48 63 53 49 Maternal mortality rate, 100,000 live births 460 30 43 180 51 71 470 63 170 65 67 28

birth, years Economic and financial shocks and the LLDCs Extern addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect s in addressing economic ahocks in addressing economic a an addressing economic ad Copin addressing economic ag economic a Capacity A countrys vulnerability to external setbacks depends on the extent of its exposure to global economy and its capacity to cope Nature of vul shocks: Some Perspectn addressing economic aerabil shocks: Some Perspectities in addressing economic a of LLDCs in addressing economic a High proportion of exports to advanced countries Primary commodity exporters Highly dependent on capital flows private, official (ODA) and remittance High external debt Cris in addressing economic ais in addressing economic a Tran addressing economic as in addressing economic amis in addressing economic as in addressing economic aion addressing economic a in addressing economic a LLDCs in addressing economic a Direct balance sheet effects The credit squeeze Reduced availability of trade credit Effects Fall in primary commodity prices Falling export volumes Reduced private investment flows Reduced Official Flows Reduced remittance flows

Varyin addressing economic ag economic a l shocks: Some Perspectevel shocks: Some Perspects in addressing economic a of coun addressing economic atry expos in addressing economic aure & copin addressing economic ag economic a capacity 0.85 Less exposure to external economic shocks Latin America and Caribean Pacific Islands 0.80 Exposure More exposure to external economic shocks Pacific Islands excl PNG 0.75 Asia Pacific LDCs Asia Pacific LLDCs Asia Pacific North-Central Asia excl RUS

0.70 South-East Asia South Asia 0.65 0.60 0.40 Africa 0.45 Weaker capacity to cope with crisis 0.50 0.55 Coping Capacity 0.60 0.65 Stronger capacity to cope with crisis Econ addressing economic aomic Growth: Some Perspect Recen addressing economic at Tren addressing economic ads in addressing economic a Hig economic ah trade-GDP ratio Trade-GDP ratio (%) 160 140 120 100 80

60 40 20 TU R UZ B TA J NE P KY R LA O M ON KA Z BH U AZ E AR M AF G 0

Exports in GDP (% of GDP) Exports of Goods and Services 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 Export g economic arowth Merchandise export growth rate (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 2008 2009

2010 2011 Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Bhutan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao PDR Mongolia Nepal Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Direction addressing economic a of merchan addressing economic adis in addressing economic ae exports in addressing economic a (% of total shocks: Some Perspect) To From Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Mongolia Bhutanc Lao PDR Asia 1990 2011 17.6 75.6 4.3

8.2 22.0 15.0 57.5 29.6 41.1 65.7 37.0 60.7 4.4 74.9 12.7 63.3 31.6 88.5 99.3 97.7 85.2 73.7 Europe 1990 2011 73.7 13.1 73.6 64.9 55.7 70.9 31.7 52.4 57.5 27.1 52.8 24.0 92.0 12.2 80.6 33.1 45.2 4.6 0.6 1.9 11.1 9.6 North and Central America 1990 2011 4.4 4.3 20.7 14.3 2.6 9.0 8.9 7.1

0.5 0.2 2.5 1.2 3.2 2.5 0.4 1.0 2.4 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 Middle East 1990 2011 3.9 6.4 0.0 11.0 19.4 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 6.8 0.0 7.7 0.0 7.5 0.1 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

ha ni st Ar an m Az eni er a ba Ka ija z Ky ak n h rg yz sta Re n pu Ta blic Tu jiki rk sta m en n ist M an on go lia Bh ut an Ne pa l Af g (% of GDP)

Imports of Goods and Services 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 MDG Score Card: Some Perspect ESCAP LLDCs in addressing economic a MDG Goal shocks: Some Perspect 1 Poverty rate $1.25 poverty rate (%) 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Earliest 40.0 Latest 30.0 20.0 10.0 Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan Tajikistan Nepal Mongolia Lao PDR Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Bhutan Bangladesh Azerbaijan Armenia Afghanistan 0.0 Tren addressing economic ads in addressing economic a in addressing economic a Un addressing economic aempl shocks: Some Perspectoymen addressing economic at 2004 Afghanistan 3.4 Armeniaa 9.6 Azerbaijanb 8.0 Kazakhstan 8.4 Kyrgyz Republic 8.5 Tajikistana

2.0 Turkmenistan 2.6 Uzbekistana 0.4 Mongolia 3.6 Bhutan 2.5 Nepald ... Lao PDR ... 2006 ... 7.5 6.6 7.8 8.3 2.2 2008 ... 6.3 5.9 6.6 8.2 2.2 2009 ... 7.0 5.7 6.6 8.4 2.0 2010

... 7.0 5.6 5.8 8.7 2.1 2011 ... 6.2 5.4 5.4 ... 2.5 0.2 3.2 3.1 ... ... 0.1 2.8 ... 2.7 ... 0.2 3.6 4.0 ... ... 0.1 3.6 3.3 ... ...

0.1 5.2 3.1 ... ... Gl shocks: Some Perspectobal shocks: Some Perspect econ addressing economic aomic cris in addressing economic ais in addressing economic a coul shocks: Some Perspectd pus in addressing economic ah addition addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect peopl shocks: Some Perspecte in addressing economic ato extreme poverty $1.25/day $2/day 2009 with revised economic growth rate 17 mil 21 mil 2010 if economic growth continues 21 mil 25 mil 31 mil 36 mil 2010 if economic growth same as 2009 i.e. prolonged crisis Sl shocks: Some Perspectow prog economic ares in addressing economic as in addressing economic a in addressing economic a reducin addressing economic ag economic a poverty an addressing economic ad hun addressing economic ag economic aer Progress in eradicating extreme poverty and hunger in LLDCs (MDG1) Country US$ 1.25 per day poverty (%) Earliest

Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Bhutan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao PDR Mongolia Nepal Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 17.5 (1996) 15.6 (1995) 4.2 (1993) 18.6 (1993) 55.7 (1992) 18.8 (1995 68.4 (1996) 44.5 (1999) 63.5 (1993) 32.1 (1998 Latest 3.7 (2007) 2.0 (2005) 2.0 (2007) 3.4(2007) 44.0 (2002) 2.2 (2008) 55.1 (2004) 21.5 (2004) 24.8 (2000)

46.3 (2003) Underweight children (% under age 5) Earliest 3.9 (1998) 10.1 (1996) 8.3 (1995) 11.0 (1997) 44.0 (1993) 12.3 (1992) 48.7 (1995) 17.4 (2005) 12.0 (2000) 18.8 (1996) Latest 4.0 (2005) 9.5 (2006) 4.0 (2006) 3.4 (2006) 37.1 (2006) 6.3 (2005) 45.0 (2006) 17.6 (2007) 11.0 (2005) 5.1 (2006) Af gh an i st Ar an m Az eni

er a b Ba aija ng n la de sh Bh K a ut a n za kh Ky sta rg n yz st a La n o P M DR on go lia Ne Ta pal Tu jiki rk sta m en n Uz ista be n kis ta n (per 1,000 live births) Goal shocks: Some Perspect 4: Some Perspect Reduce chil shocks: Some Perspectd mortal shocks: Some Perspectity

Under-5 mortality rate 250 200 150 1990 100 2010 50 0 Goal shocks: Some Perspect 4: Some Perspect Reduce chil shocks: Some Perspectd mortal shocks: Some Perspectity (per 1,000 live birth) Infant mortality rate 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2000 Building resilience to future crisis Buil shocks: Some Perspectdin addressing economic ag economic a res in addressing economic ail shocks: Some Perspectien addressing economic ace in addressing economic acl shocks: Some Perspectus in addressing economic aive an addressing economic ad s in addressing economic aus in addressing economic atain addressing economic aabl shocks: Some Perspecte devel shocks: Some Perspectopmen addressing economic at Prepare for n addressing economic aew n addressing economic aormal shocks: Some Perspect- buil shocks: Some Perspectd in addressing economic as in addressing economic atabil shocks: Some Perspectity in addressing economic a the g economic al shocks: Some Perspectobal shocks: Some Perspect markets in addressing economic a an addressing economic ad

extern addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect s in addressing economic ahocks in addressing economic a in addressing economic a devel shocks: Some Perspectopmen addressing economic at s in addressing economic atrateg economic ay Focus in addressing economic a on addressing economic a broad-bas in addressing economic aed, empl shocks: Some Perspectoymen addressing economic at-in addressing economic aten addressing economic as in addressing economic aive an addressing economic ad in addressing economic aequal shocks: Some Perspectityreducin addressing economic ag economic a devel shocks: Some Perspectopmen addressing economic at s in addressing economic atrateg economic ay Econ addressing economic aomic g economic arowth driven addressing economic a by productive capacity devel shocks: Some Perspectopmen addressing economic at Divers in addressing economic aify export bas in addressing economic ae an addressing economic ad des in addressing economic atin addressing economic aation addressing economic as in addressing economic a In addressing economic aves in addressing economic at in addressing economic a in addressing economic atern addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect con addressing economic an addressing economic aectivity Lan addressing economic ad-l shocks: Some Perspectin addressing economic aked hubs in addressing economic a with s in addressing economic atron addressing economic ag economic a tran addressing economic as in addressing economic aport corridors in addressing economic a an addressing economic ad trade facil shocks: Some Perspectitation addressing economic a Reg economic aion addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect an addressing economic ad s in addressing economic aouth-s in addressing economic aouth trade an addressing economic ad fin addressing economic aan addressing economic acial shocks: Some Perspect cooperation addressing economic a Main addressing economic atain addressing economic a macroecon addressing economic aomic s in addressing economic atabil shocks: Some Perspectity, rul shocks: Some Perspecte of l shocks: Some Perspectaw an addressing economic ad reduce corruption addressing economic a In addressing economic atern addressing economic aation addressing economic aal shocks: Some Perspect s in addressing economic aupport throug economic ah trade, in addressing economic aves in addressing economic atmen addressing economic at, remittan addressing economic ace, aid, an addressing economic ad techn addressing economic aol shocks: Some Perspectog economic ay tran addressing economic as in addressing economic afer Stren addressing economic ag economic athen addressing economic a s in addressing economic aocial shocks: Some Perspect protection addressing economic a Improve bas in addressing economic aic s in addressing economic aervices in addressing economic a an addressing economic ad their del shocks: Some Perspectivery Promotin addressing economic ag economic a s in addressing economic aocial shocks: Some Perspect protection addressing economic a Social protection in Asia and the Pacific, selected countries Please read Vientiane Consensus Thank you

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