The Next Release of CCSM: IPCC and Community

The Next Release of CCSM: IPCC and Community

The Next Release of CCSM: IPCC and Community Applications Bill Collins National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Development History of CCSM CSM 1.0

June 1996 New ocean, land, sea-ice models New physics in atmosphere CCSM 2.0 May 2002 New physics in all models

CCSM 3.0 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Winter 2003 Configuration of CCSM for IPCC Atmosphere (CAM 3.0) T85 (1.4o)

Land (CLM2.2) T85 (1.4o) Coupler (CPL 6) Ocean (POP 1.4.3) (1o)

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Sea Ice (CSIM 4) (1o) Component Models in CCSM Atmosphere Multiple dynamical cores: SLD, Eulerian, & Finite Volume Generalized 2D decomposition of grid Resolutions with most heritage: T31, T42, and T85 (L26)

Ocean Derivative of LANL Parallel Ocean Program Grid: spherical in S. hemisphere, orthogonal curvilinear in N. hemisphere Standard resolution: 320 x 384 (L40) Land Surface Superset of NCAR LSM and Georgia Tech BATS Same horizontal resolution as atmosphere 10 layers for soil, up to 5 for snowpack

Sea Ice Up to 5 categories of sea-ice thickness CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Atmospheric Dynamics and Resolution Goal for IPCC: T85 (1.4o) or equivalent FV resolution Improved resolution for regional impact studies Improved resolution for fidelity in coastal stratus regions Recommendation on atmospheric dynamics:

Eulerian for standard IPCC scenario applications Finite Volume for future development and experimentation Resolution Goal for CCSM: Single physics package for multiple dynamics & resolutions: T85 11

IPCC T42 22.5 AMWG, CVWG, Paleo, T31

. BGCWG Dynamics CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Main Model Biases in CCSM2 Overestimation of winter land surface temperatures

Bias largely eliminated in new CLM and CAM Underestimation of tropical tropopause temperatures Bias reduced in new CAM Erroneous cloud response to SST changes Signs and pattern of response corrected in new CAM

Errors in E. Pacific surface energy budget Double ITCZ and extended cold tongue

Stress, latent heat flux, and insolation better in T85 CAM Cold tongue mitigated in new POP Underestimation of tropical variability Underestimation still present CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Winter Land Surface Temperatures

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Tropical Tropopause Temperatures CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Cloud Forcing Response to Tropical SSTs CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

East Pacific Surface Energy Budget CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Double ITCZ CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Tropical Variability CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

Ocean Model Changes for CCSM 3.0 KPP boundary layer Solar Absorption (Chlorophyll) Double Diffusion Ideal Age and Passive Tracer Infrastructure Ocean Currents in Air-Sea Fluxes CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

Mixed Layer Depths CONTROL All Physics + Numerical MODS Jan July CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

SST Signature of Solar Absorption CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 SST Signature of All Ocean Modifications CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Land Model Working Group Goal For CCSM2: state-of-the-art model with focus on biogeophysics, hydrology,

river routing Goal For Next Few Years: Natural and human-mediated changes in land cover and ecosystem functions and their effects on climate, water resources, and biogeochemistry Process: Continue to develop and improve existing physical parameterizations in the model while adding new biological and chemical process Reflected Solar Radiation Absorbed Solar Radiation

Photosynthesis Sensible Heat Flux Latent Heat Flux Longwave Radiation Hydrology

Momentum Flux Wind Speed 0 ua Precipitation Evaporation Interception Canopy Water Transpiration

Emitted Longwave Radiation r la So n ct t i o re ia Di Rad Diffuse

Solar Radiation Biogeophysics Throughfall Stemflow Sublimation Melt

Evaporation Infiltration Surface Runoff Snow Soil Heat Flux Soil Water Heat Transfer

Redistribution Drainage CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Model Development for new CLM Biogeochemistry Goal: Enable parameterization of terrestrial carbon cycle New hierarchical data structures within a grid cell: grid cell land unit snow/soil columns plant functional types. Does not change climate. Allow multiple plant types on a single soil column. Minor climate changes.

Biogeophysics I Goal: Minor changes or bug fixes Allow precipitation to be rain/snow mix Improve 2-m temperature diagnostic Remove discontinuity in bulk density of snow Biogeophysics II Goal: Reduce excessive summertime temperatures in arid regions. Reduce Arctic winter warm temperature bias Turbulent exchange of heat from ground CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

Turbulent Heat Flux from Vegetated Surfaces CLM2.2 CLM2 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Effects on Land Surface Temperatures CLM2.2 CLM2

22-year (1979-2000) simulations of CAM2 with CLM2.2 CLM2.2 significantly cools surface air temperature CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changes to Physics in CAM3 Clouds and condensate: Improved prognostic cloud water & moist processes Transfer of mixed phase precipitation to land surface Improved cloud parameterization

Radiation: Shortwave forcing by diagnostic aerosols Updated SW scheme for H2O absorption Updated LW scheme for LW absorption and emission Surface models: Introduction of CLM 2.2 Reintroduction of Slab Ocean Model (SOM) Energy fixers for dynamics + diagnostics

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Increased Cloud Condensate CAM 3 CAM 2 CAM 3 CAM 2 Separate cloud liquid

and ice variables Advect cloud condensate Include latent heat of fusion Use ice & water variables for cloud optics New dependence on temperature for cirrus particle size Sedimentation of cloud droplets and ice particles Modified evaporation of rain

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Increased Cloud Amounts CAM 3 CAM 2 CAM 3 CAM 2 PBL height constrained Rain rate > 0

Convection cloud amounts from convective mass fluxes Stratocumulus clouds in lowest 2 levels Changes to autoconversion thresholds Changes to relative humidity thresholds Fall speed of droplets is function of effective radius

NETTOA = 4.5 Wm2 NETTOA = 0.53 Wm2 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Global Aerosol Assimilation Climatology 1995-2000 AVHRR Analysis Aerosol

Assimilatio n NCAR CAM CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Analysis Aerosol Forcing Climate Impacts

Addition of Prescribed Aerosol Forcing CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changes in Longwave Cooling Rates: New H2O Lines and Continuum Change in LBL Cooling Change in

CAM Cooling CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Global Decrease in Longwave Fluxes CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changes in Shortwave Heating Rates: New H2O Lines and Continuum

Tropics LBL Heating CAM2 Heating CAM2x Heating CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Global Increase in SW Heating Rates

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Global Decrease in Surface Insolation CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Higher Tropopause Temperatures CAM 3 CAM 2

CAM 3 CAM 2 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Lower Winter Land Surface Temperatures CAM 3 CAM 2 CAM 3 CAM 2

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Cloud Response to Tropical SST Variations CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changes in Coupler & the Sea-Ice Model Coupler

Improved performance and scaling Greater flexibility to add new fields Significant DOE communication infrastructure Faster multi-way communication to components Sea Ice

Horizontal advection scheme Addition of constant salinity in sea ice Updates to albedos of snow and sea ice Updates to ridging for thick ice categories CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Surface Temperatures: CCSM T85 Control

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Sea-Ice Area: CCSM T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Sea-Ice Thickness: CCSM T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Land Surface Temperatures: T85 Control

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Tropical Surface Stress: T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Surface Insolation: CCSM T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

ENSO Variability: CCSM T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Nino Index Variability: CCSM T85 Control CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Surface Stress CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

Changing Resolution: Surface Insolation CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Total Precipitation CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Sea-Surface Temperature

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Pacific Temperature CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Surface Salinity CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Pacific Salinity

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Pacific Currents CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Decision Schedule for IPCC Recommendation for IPCC configuration: CCSM Scientists Meeting, Nov. 12

Data for decision: T85 integrations for 3 options of 50+ years T85 SOM integrations for 1x, 2xCO2 T85 AMIP/warm-cold integrations (ENSO) Analogous data for T42

Final evaluation and decision for IPCC: SSC Meeting, Nov. 18-19 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Release of CCSM3 to the Community Contents of release: Model physics: all components = IPCC Model data sets: controls for T31,T42, & T85 Technical documentation

Schedule for release: Winter 2004 Documentation in literature: J. Climate special issue? Release of IPCC model data sets? CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Climate Sensitivity: T42 CAM + SOM CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

IPCC Schedule CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Scenarios: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 NCARs IPCC Production Schedule

CCSM Execution Speed on NCAR IBM: T42 ATM: 10.9 years/day T85 ATM: 4.3 years/day CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Development Plans for CCSM, 2004-08 CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 CCSM: The Next Two Years

Roadmap to the future Climate sensitivity from IPCC studies Process studies from GFDL collaboration, CPTs Studies of higher resolution and benchmark calculations News physics/dynamics from Science Plan Integration of climate and chemistry

Ocean and land biogeochemistry Prognostic aerosols Tropospheric chemistry WACCM Tracers CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

The Evolution of CCSM CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Computational Demands for CCSM Science CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Conclusions A new version of CCSM is ready for IPCC

Features of CCSM3: Improvements in component physics Ability to run with multiple resolutions, dycores Issues for the near future: Final decisions regarding model configuration

Definition of public release Completion and analysis of IPCC integrations Integration of coupled carbon-climate experiments Issues for the longer term: Addition of new scientists in emerging focal areas Access to significant new computational resources CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Sea-Ice Concentration: CCSM T85 Control

CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Arctic Salinity CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003 Changing Resolution: Temperature Cycle CAB Meeting, NSF, Nov. 5-6, 2003

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