Predicting Achievement in the Early Years: How Influential is ...
Teacher Assessment versus Exams Peter Tymms CEM, Durham University www.cemcentre.org Overview
The Issue The importance of LAs, Schools and teachers Fairness and bias Coverage and sampling Teacher assessment Exams and tests Predictive validity Conclusions
The Issue Teacher assessment is unfair because it is unreliable and biased. Exams are simply snapshots and are unrepresentative of the work that has really be done Which matters most? 1. 2. 3. 4.
LA School Teacher Pupil Newcastle Commission: Data Sources Several national datasets including ASPECTS, PIPS, MidYIS & YELLIS KS1, KS2, KS3 & GCSE Looked a value-added using 3 level multilevel models
Example using KS2 English 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00
Pupil raw Pupil valueadded School School LEA raw LEA raw value value added added 2.00 1.00
0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 Pupil raw Pupil valueadded School School LEA raw LEA raw
value value added added 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
-2.00 -3.00 Pupil raw Pupil valueadded School School LEA raw LEA raw value value added added
2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 Pupil raw Pupil valueadded
School School LEA raw LEA raw value value added added 2.00 1.00 0.00
-1.00 -2.00 -3.00 Pupil raw Pupil valueadded School School LEA raw LEA raw value value
added added 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00
-3.00 Pupil raw Pupil valueadded School School LEA raw LEA raw value value added added Willms Diagram
The Teacher Effect Repeated Boosts: Vocabulary 5 Levels 4 3 2 1 0 ER
Y1 Y2 Y3 Year Y4 Y5 Y6
Which matters most? 1. 2. 3. 4. LA School Teacher Pupil Conclusion
Pupils vary enormously Teachers have the greatest impact Schools are relevant Authorities hardly vary at all Hypothesis The best teachers will be best at judging their students What is bias? Bias appears in a test when part of an assessment is harder for a particular group. Or when an assessor systematically
downgrades a group or an individual for construct irrelevant reasons Example of item bias Pigeon Turtle Examples of teacher bias
Annecdote By Sex (eg baseline & page 17 Harlen) By ability judgement anchored by experience By Ethnicity assault experiments By social class By behaviour (origin of ability testing. Binet) By Age (EPICure study) By incident eg spilling a glass of water.
The halo (or horns) effect (e.g. P scales) P Scales in 2004 speak. listen. read. write. using number shapes sc speaking listening reading writing using number shape sci. enq
life proc. mat. prop phys. proc 0.98 0.86 0.87 0.80 0.84 0.86 0.78 0.80 0.79
0.83 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 Teacher reliability How should reliability be assessed By looking at the internal consistency of judgements? By looking at the link to external
assessments? By comparing over time? By comparing one teacher with others? Facets model within Rasch measurement Trusting teachers judgement Harlen 2005 The findings of the review by no means constitute a ringing endorsement of teachers assessment; there was evidence
of low reliability and bias in teachers judgements 5-14, Portfolios & single level tests 5-14 assessments What about portfolios? inter-rater very low for maths and writing English teacher levels in SATs early 1990s considerable error later quite common to find teacher = test results single level tests compromised by teacher
judgement Is it OK for teachers to assess their own pupils for High Stakes exams? How does the power to grade affect relationships? Would you give McEnroy a B? Exam/test reliability Typically around 0.9 but Distinguish the assessment of
Convergent questions Divergent questions Exam/test bias Pre-tests are often used to address issues of bias But we put much reliance on judgment. Englands major exams are largely not pre-tested. Are Exams inappropriate snapshots?
Issue 1: Questions must be representative samples of the course under exam conditions. Issue 2: Constraint on the nature of the assessment Multi-method Multi-trait challenge Issue 3: Impact of stress on performance Positive & Negative (links to introversion) Introvert and Extrovert Effort
Stimulus We need to match format to content Some things must be assessed by judgement: Social interactions Quality of research Poetry Art
Some things are best assessed left to tests Mental arithmetic Spelling Phonological awareness Diagnostic assessments (e.g. INCAS) Even so perhaps there is a final arbiter
Predictive validity Developed ability test (MidYIS/IQ/etc) Attainment test (Std Grade/Highers) Later success degree, salary etc Teacher Grade
We need the evidence but .. Prediction is often poor Two major reasons Later Achievement Prediction of Educational Achievement Prior Achievement Later Achievement
Correlation = 0.7 Prior Achievement Later Achievement Select top 15% Prior Achievement Later Achievement
Correlation = 0.39 Prior Achievement Later Achievement Cream top 3%; r=0.19 Prior Achievement So, poor prediction because of Prior selection Variable outcome measures
Conclusion: Judgements or tests? Should we do both? (Profiles) But, how do we ensure that judgements and tests are independent? How can judgements be kept free from bias? Virtually impossible in high stakes tests Essential for formative work References
Campbell, D. T., & Fiske, D. W. (1959). Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the MultitraitMultimethod Matrix. Psychological Bulletin, 56, 81-105. Cooper, B. (1998). Using Bernstein and Bourdieu to understand children's difficulties with "realistic"
mathematics testing: an exploratory study. Qualitative Studies in Education, II(4), 511-532. Eysenck, H. J. (2006) The Biollogical Basis of Personaility.Transaction publishers Harlen, W. (2005). Trusting teachers' judgement: research evidence of reliability and validity of teachers' assessment used for summative purposes. Research Papers in Education, 20(3), 245270. Johnson, S., Hennessy, E., Smith, R., Trikic, R., Wolke, D., & Marlow, N. (2009). The EPICure Study: Academic attainment and special educational needs in extremely preterm children at 11 years. London: Nottingham/London/Warwick. Koretz, D., Stecher, B. M., Klein, S. P. & McCaffrey, D. (1994) The Vermont Portfolio Assessment Program: findings and implications, Educational Measurement: Issues & Practice, 13, 516. Tymms, P. (1997). Value-added Key Stage 1 to Key Stage 2. London: School Curriculum and Assessment Authority. Tymms, P., Jones, P., Albone, S., & Henderson, B. (2009). The first seven years at school. Educational Assessment and Evaluation Accountability, 21, 67-80.
Tymms, P., Merrell, C., Heron, T., Jones, P., Albone, S., & Henderson, B. (2008). The importance of districts. School Effectiveness and School Improvement, 19(3), 261-274. Tymms, P., Merrell, C., & Jones, P. (2004). Using baseline assessment data to make international comparisons. British Educational Research Journal, 30(5), 673-689. Willms, J. D. (1987). Differences Between Scottish Educational Authorities in their Examinations Attainment. Oxford Review of Education, 13(2), 211-232.
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