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General Assembly of the German Forum on Sustainable Palm Oil September 27, 2017 The Perception of Palm Oil in Europe Source: Kevron Global Presented by Kristjan Jespersen Copenhagen Business School, Denmark Introduction Kristjan Jespersen, PhD Copenhagen Business School, Denmark

Primary research focus: Focused on Impact Research Global commodities Ecological economics Corporate sustainability Source: FAO Modern palm oil cultivation 2 Research project method European national commitments to sustainable palm oil Factiva search for keyword: palm oil in different languages 51.727 news articles in 14 countries Interviews with industry experts regarding policy and market environment for palm oil Source: Actualitix Europe, Palm Oil Import

Source: www.rspo.org/certification/national-commitments 3 Preliminary findings Number of articles 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

m rk ce ny nd aly ds ay gal ain en nd om ria d la It lan orw rtu Sp st lgiu ma ran ma ela d u r N r we tzer ing Ir o F A Be en e e S

P i K D G th Sw ited Ne Un Number of articles (per one million population) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

0 4 Germany Articles per year 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600

400 200 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5 Certification and standards 11.74 percent of sampled articles mention certification or standards Demand for certified products is growing still lower than supply

What drives the market for sustainable palm oil? 6 Topics 7 Topics 8 Norwegian Consumer Campaign Goals:

1. To expose the links between palm oil production, deforestation, and social conflicts in Indonesia and Malaysia 2. To reduce the Norwegian consumption of palm oil in foods 3. To make Norwegian food producers demand traceability and transparency from their palm oil suppliers Actions: Survey and meetings with food producers Web-based consumer guide Strategic use of traditional and social media Petition against the use of palm oil in foods Dissemination of background information and palm oil-related news and articles on websites and in magazines Results: Created awareness of the link among Norwegian consumers between palm oil production, deforestation, and social conflicts in Indonesia and Malaysia Annual use of palm oil in Norwegian food products decreased by two thirds between 2011 and 2012

Some signs of progress regarding demand for traceability and transparency, but it is difficult to draw a firm conclusion I believe that prohibition is the wrong medicine. I believe that a ban or boycott can make it more difficult to conserve the rainforest. If Norway bans palm oil it will be sold to other countries. Then it is much better to demand that production is sustainable Tine Sundtoft, former Minister of Climate and the Environment 9 Transformative Change A C A = the way things are B

B = the way things will be C = smaller than you think 10 A Theory of Socio-Technical Change The second order consequences of changes to complex socio-technical systems are often in the opposite direction of the expected first order consequences and bigger Examples: The paperless office more paper

Building highways to reduce congestion more congestion Air travel to expand horizons soul-destroying experience Zero Palm Oil Consumption increased deforestation, emissions because of alternative crops 11 Seer-sucker Theory of Forecasting "No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers." (Scott Armstrong, 1980) 12

The path towards change Forecasting Predict most likely future Scenarios Explore alternative futures Backcasting Assess feasibility of desirable future Future Future Future

Present Present Present 13 The consequences of waiving palm oil Commercially available alternatives to palm oil (Hinrichsen, 2016) Partially hydrogenated fats Fully hydrogenated fats Exotic fats Liquid oils

Economic development and poverty alleviation Source: Economic Transformation Programmel 14 Thank You Source: Kevron Global 15

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