UNCLASSIFIED Headquarters U.S. Air Force Integrity - Service

UNCLASSIFIED Headquarters U.S. Air Force Integrity - Service

UNCLASSIFIED Headquarters U.S. Air Force Integrity - Service - Excellen ce Air Force CONOPS & Capabilities Based Planning Lt Col Nathan Titus Resource Analyses Directorate Air Force Studies & Analyses Agency 19 Mar 04 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Overview Capabilities Based Planning Background Challenges to Implementation Recent Efforts in Air Force Capabilities-Based Planning Observations/Recommendations Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Capabilities-Based Planning Background [P]lanning, under uncertainty, to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of modern-day challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework that necessitates choice. Paul K. Davis, Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation, MR-1513-OSD Focus on possibilities vs.. specific validated threats Central question must be What do I need to do to achieve desired effects? vs.. How many of each system do I need?

Goal is to plan for robust, flexible forces, capable of meeting a wide variety of threats, rather than an optimal force for a narrow set of threats Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Challenges to Implementation Fundamentals: Defining terms: Effects and Capabilities Understanding the role of scenarios Analytic Issues: Proficiency vs. Sufficiency What do we mean by Risk? What does it cost? Determining priorities Organizational Challenges Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Fundamentals Defining effects and capabilities

Effects are associated with a desired Outcome or Result Capabilities are Non-solution Specific Describe What must be done to achieve Effects Fix the level to create common perspective Avoid overlaps, redundancy Identify relationships Role of scenario Scenarios needed to provide context for capability assessment Suite of scenarios/vignettes must span the range of potential conflicts in all dimensions (political, geography, intensity, etc) In resource constrained environment, best solution is robust across all scenarios not an optimal solution to a point scenario which may never occur Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Fundamentals: Defining Effects and Capabilities Master Capability List Capability 1 SubCapability Sub-SubCapability Sub-SubCapability SubCapability Sub-SubCapability Sub-SubCapability Effects Construct Capability 2 SubCapability Effect Capability Sub-SubCapability Sub-SubCapability Functional decomposition of capabilities Collectively Exhaustive and Mutually Exclusive Provides a menu from which all CONOPS can choose required capabilities

Effect Capability SubCapability SubCapability Capability SubCapability SubCapability SubCapability Builds on Master Capability List Links capabilities to effects Explicitly identifies crosslinks and interdependencies between capabilities Highlights enabler capabilities Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Analytic Issues: Defining Risk Risk is derived from two independent assessments Our capability to deal with events or to provide effects (y axis) The severity of impact of the event if we fail to provide the capability (x axis) Risk concept not strictly ORM No attempt to determine the probability of adverse event (no validated data exists, this is left to senior leadership judgement) Measures capability to achieve required effects Capability C8 C8

C5 C1 C1 C6 C6 C7 C7 C3 C3 C2 C2 C4 C4 Severity of Impact Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Analytic Issues: Capability Proficiency vs. Sufficiency Answering questions like How much capability do we have? or How much capability do we need? leads to two different looks at capability Proficiency how well Sufficiency how many e.g., radar detection range Force Structure Proficiency Key scenario elements are adversary and location Amenable to subjective or objective analysis techniques Sufficiency

Key scenario elements are time related how fast to arrive and how long to sustain Best addressed with an objective, quantitative analysis technique Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Gen Jumpers Sight Picture CHIEFS SIGHT PICTURE: Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment What happened to the Quarterly Acquisition Review Program (QAPR)? In this Sight Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) ... will guide our planning and programming, requirements reform, and acquisition. Picture, Ill answer that question--but to do so, I first need to give you a sense of the bigger picture in which the answer fits. ...make warfighting transformation to a capabilities-focused Expeditionary Air and Space Force. Our goal is to make effects, and the warfighting effects, and the capabilities we need to achieve them, the drivers for everything we capabilities we need to do. The centerpiece of this effort is the development of new Task Force Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) that will guide our planning and programming, requirements reform, and acquisition. achieve them, the drivers We have identified seven Task Force CONOPS that we are fleshing out--Global Strike Task Force (GSTF) is a prominent example and is the farthest along in development. for everything we do. The Air Staff is currently working hard to lay the foundation for the next step in our Its in this context the Air Staff has designed a new review to replace the QAPR--we call this new approach a Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA). The focus of the CRRA will shift from a program review to a review of how our programs contribute to Air Staff designed a new review to replace the Quarterly Acquisition Review Program--we call this new approach a Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA). ... shift from a program review to a review of how Let me briefly describe the logic behind the CRRA construct. For our first time out of

the chute, well review the capabilities that support the GSTF. The CRRA will evaluate the our programs contribute health and risk of each of the required GSTF capabilities over the next 20 years. To accomplish to warfighting this, we will review acquisition programs and discuss disconnects and prioritization in relation to how the programs support GSTF capabilities. The bottom-line goal for the CRRA is to give capabilities and effects. senior USAF leadership an operational, capabilities-based focus for acquisition program warfighting capabilities and effects. As with all aspects of our transformation, CRRAs will be centered around Task Force CONOPS. decisionmaking. The target for the GSTF CRRA is June 2002. As future Task Force CONOPS are defined, we will hold CRRAs accordingly. SAF/AQ and AF/XO will lead us through this first cycle, with major input from the MAJCOMs. Much work needs to be done through the next four months to make this a successful review, and I need your support so our Air Force can move in the right direction--towards using operational warfighting effects as the origin for every piece of hardware and software we buy. Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Using the MCL Example Data Collection Tool Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Using the MCL Example Activity Diagram (Time Sensitive Targeting) Determine Environment Assess Cue(s) Determine Sensor Availability Task Sensor Collect Data Detect Target Track until Stopped Geolocate Target ID Target

Update Target List Assign weapon to target Update Mission Plans Issue Execution Order Support Weapon Flyout Deconflict target Task BDI / BHI Collect BDI / BHI Assess BDI / BHI Remove from Target List Integrity - Service - Excellence DDD Target UNCLASSIFIED Using Value Functions When More is Better 100 More doesnt matter 90 Good Enough 80 Proficiency Value 70

60 Example -inMore Elicitation unitsis ofbetter the measure Measure: Detection Is more of this good or range bad? When you do it with Unitscant of measure: NMI less? What good enough? Cantisdo with less than 250 NMI When does more not matter? Good enough is 500 NMI 50 40 30 20 Over 1000 NMI doesnt matter Cant do it with less 10 0 0 250 500 750

1000 1250 Range (NMI) Integrity - Service - Excellence 1500 UNCLASSIFIED Air Force CONOPS Construct Focus for Planning & Programming Global Power Global Reach Joint Vision Global Vigilance USAF Vision Air & Space Expeditionary Forces Global Strike CONOPS Homeland Security CONOPS Global Mobility CONOPS Global Persistent Attack CONOPS Nuclear Response CONOPS Agile Combat Support UNCLASSIFIEDI n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Space & C4ISR CONOPS UNCLASSIFIED Integrated CRRA Analysis Process Overview

Phase 2B Analysis (Leveraging Existing Efforts & New Focused Work) Phase 1 - Foundations Define Master Capability Library Define Scenarios Define CONOPS Activity Models Define Metrics Product: Capability Performance Framework Warm Database Mining Product: Focus Areas List Assess Proficiency Assess Sufficiency Assess Impact Phase 2A Analysis (Subjective Assessment) Phase 3 Apply Professional Military Judgment Pair-wise Comparisons ArchitectureBased Thread Analyses CONOPSSpecific Analyses Product: Candidate Courses of

Action Product: Prioritized Courses of Action CRRA Briefing Trail Phase 2C Analysis (Characterization and Optimization of Solutions) Characterization of Resource Constraints Characterization of Warfighting Effects Optimization of Alternatives Integrity - Service - Excellence Product: Planning and Programming Guidance to MAJCOMS (APPG) UNCLASSIFIED Relationship of Assessments RAT View RAT Teams Global Strike Global Persistent Attack Space & C4ISR Nuclear Response Homeland Security Global Mobility

Surveillance & Reconnaissance Intelligence Command & Control Communications Force Application Force Projection Protect Prepare & Sustain Create the Force CONOPS View Integrity - Service - Excellence Air Force View UNCLASSIFIED CONOPS MCL Connection to Joint Functional Concepts Joint Functional Concepts Battlespace Awareness Joint Cmd & Ctrl Force Application Protection Focused Logistics 7.0 Protect 6.0 Force Projection AF CONOPS Capabilities 1.0 Surveillance & Reconaissance 3.0 Command & Control 2.0 Intelligence 4.0 Communications 5.0 Force Application

8.0 Prepare & Sustain 9.0 Create the Force Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Observations/ Recommendations Measuring individual capabilities is not difficult; comparing the value/worth of different capabilities is the hard part Scenarios are still important! Maybe even more important than in threat-based planning Difficult to measure DOTLPF solutions vs. M solutions need techniques to help do this Definitions are important build consensus early! Rigorous application of a framework is necessary but not sufficient for success Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Summary The USAF is moving forward to establish Capabilities Based Planning as the foundation for how we conduct business in the future A constant communication between HQ/AF and MAJCOMs essential to understand contributions to warfighter, investment strategies to mitigate shortfalls and capability priorities

Our task: make warfighting effects, and the capabilities needed to achieve them, the drivers for everything we do UNCLASSIFIEDI n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Back Up Integrity - Service - Excellence Analytic Issues: Cost Linking capabilities to cost demands a discussion of solutions Should you even talk about costs? Decision makers need the input, but leads to other questions: What cost to use? NPV, LCC, Acquisition, O&M? How are currently owned systems valued? Will this approach stifle innovation? Bottom line is that we need to analyze solutions and costs, but do the capability analysis up front to ensure we are solving the most important problems Integrity - Service - Excellence UNCLASSIFIED Analytic Issues: Determining Shortfall Priorities Determining Importance of capability shortfalls How extensive is the shortfall? What is the impact if not fixed? How much of the Air Force is affected?

No well-defined set of tools/models exists need objective & subjective tools as well as military judgment 0 0 0 0 0 C5 C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C8 C1 C1 C6 C6 C7 C7 C3 C2 Determine Weights C4 C4 Sensitivity Analysis Multiattribute Utility Analysis Prioritized Shortfalls Combine with Risk

Assessment Scores Shortfall priority = f(shortfall importance, risk, cost) Integrity UNCLASSIFIED - Service - Excellence Methodology Build Master Capability Library for all CONOPS Each CONOPS describes desired effects and capabilities required to achieve these effects Capabilities drawn from MCL to facilitate later integration Interdependencies and linkages between capabilities are explicitly defined in each CONOPS From CONOPS descriptions (above), effects construct built to aid subjective determination of effects drivers: Effects linked to capabilities, sub-capabilities Weights associated with the contribution of a capability or sub-capability determined by SME or from quick-turn analysis tools Weights are developed in the context of an overarching scenario Risk Assessment Charts Depicts capability assessment vs.. severity of impact for capability in the context of an overarching scenario Integration is straightforward extension when common capability definitions and overarching scenarios are used Required additional assumption is that all CONOPS Effects are of equal value Integrity - Service - Excellence Master Capability List (1 of 2) 1.0 Data Collection 2.0 Intelligence 1.1 1.1 Surveillance Surveillance (Un-Cued (Un-Cued Continuous Continuous Collection) Collection) 2.1 2.1 Process

Process and and Exploit Exploit Intel Intel 1.2 1.2 Reconnaissance Reconnaissance (Cued (Cued Search, Search, Focused Focused Coll.) Coll.) 1.3 1.3 Collect Collect Weather Weather Related Related Information Information 2.2 2.2 Provide Provide Intel Assessments Assessments 3.0 Command & Control 4.0 Communications 3.1 3.1 Planning Planning 4.1 4.1 Exchange Exchange Information Information 3.2 3.2 Execution Execution Management Management 4.2 4.2 Provide Provide for for Data Data Storage Storage and and Retrieval Retrieval

3.3 3.3 Provide Provide Positioning, Positioning, Navigation, Navigation, Timing Timing Information Information 4.3 4.3 Provide Provide Network Network Damage Assessment & & Reconstitution Reconstitution Integrity - Service - Excellence Master Capability List (2 of 2) 5.0 Force Application 6.0 Full Spectrum Threat Response 7.0 Combat Support 8.0 Mobility 5.1 5.1 Countermeasures Countermeasures 6.1 6.1 Protect Protect the the Force Force 7.1 7.1 Establish Establish Operating Locations 8.1 8.1 Airlift Airlift 5.2 5.2 Neutralize Neutralize Air Air Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 6.2

6.2 Provide Support for for Civil Civil Authorities Authorities 7.2 7.2 Generate Generate the the Mission Mission 8.2 8.2 Air Air Refueling Refueling 7.3 7.3 Support Support Mission Mission and and Forces Forces 8.3 8.3 Space Lift 5.3 5.3 Neutralize Neutralize Space Space Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 6.3 6.3 Defensive Defensive Information Information Operations Operations 5.4 5.4 Neutralize Neutralize Surface Surface Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 7.4 7.4 Posture Posture Responsive Responsive Forces Forces 5.5 5.5 Neutralize

Neutralize Sub-Surface Sub-Surface Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 7.5 7.5 Sustain Sustain Mission Mission and and Forces Forces 5.6 5.6 Offensive Offensive Information Information Operations Operations 7.6 7.6 Public Public Affairs Affairs 5.7 5.7 Combat Combat Search Search and Rescue Integrity - Service - Excellence Global Mobility CONOPS: Notional Example (1 of 2) 1.0 Data Collection 2.0 Intelligence 1.1 1.1 Surveillance Surveillance (Un-Cued (Un-Cued Continuous Continuous Collection) Collection) 2.1 2.1 Process Process and and Exploit Exploit Intel Intel 1.2 1.2 Reconnaissance

Reconnaissance (Cued (Cued Search, Search, Focused Focused Coll.) Coll.) 1.3 1.3 Collect Collect Weather Weather Related Related Information Information 2.2 2.2 Provide Provide Intel Assessments Assessments 3.0 Command & Control 4.0 Communications 3.1 3.1 Planning Planning 4.1 4.1 Exchange Exchange Information Information 3.2 3.2 Execution Execution Management Management 4.2 4.2 Provide Provide for for Data Data Storage Storage and and Retrieval Retrieval 3.3 3.3 Provide Provide Positioning, Positioning, Navigation, Navigation, Timing Timing

Information Information 4.3 4.3 Provide Provide Network Network Damage Assessment & & Reconstitution Reconstitution Integrity - Service - Excellence Global Mobility CONOPS: Notional Example (2 of 2) 5.0 Force Application 6.0 Full Spectrum Threat Response 7.0 Combat Support 8.0 Mobility 5.1 5.1 Countermeasures Countermeasures 6.1 6.1 Protect Protect the the Force Force 7.1 7.1 Establish Establish Operating Locations 8.1 8.1 Airlift Airlift 5.2 5.2 Neutralize Neutralize Air Air Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 6.2 6.2 Provide Support for for Civil Civil Authorities Authorities 7.2

7.2 Generate Generate the the Mission Mission 8.2 8.2 Air Air Refueling Refueling 7.3 7.3 Support Support Mission Mission and and Forces Forces 8.3 8.3 Space Lift 5.3 5.3 Neutralize Neutralize Space Space Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 6.3 6.3 Defensive Defensive Information Information Operations Operations 5.4 5.4 Neutralize Neutralize Surface Surface Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 7.4 7.4 Posture Posture Responsive Responsive Forces Forces 5.5 5.5 Neutralize Neutralize Sub-Surface Sub-Surface Threats/Targets Threats/Targets 7.5

7.5 Sustain Sustain Mission Mission and and Forces Forces 5.6 5.6 Offensive Offensive Information Information Operations Operations 7.6 7.6 Public Public Affairs Affairs 5.7 5.7 Combat Combat Search Search and Rescue Integrity - Service - Excellence Global Mobility Effects Construct Rapid Projection of Joint Power 0.4 0.6 7.0 Combat Support 8.0 Mobility 0.1 0.1 1.0 Data Collection 0.2 0.1 3.0 Command & Control 4.0 Comm 0.1 0.1 1.0

0.4 1.3 Collect Weather Info 3.1 Planning 0.4 0.2 3.3 Nav, Pos, & Timing 3.2 Execution Management 0.1 0.1 0.3 6.0 FSTR 0.3 8.1 Air Lift 8.2 Air Refueling 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.3 Space Lift 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 7.1 Establish Operating Location 7.3 Support the Mission 7.2 Generate the Mission 7.4 Posture the Force 4.1 Exchange

Information 4.2 Data Storage 4.3 Network Damage Assess 6.1 Protect the Force Integrity - Service - Excellence 5.1 Defensive Countermeasures Crosscutting Analysis: Using the Effects Construct Determination of contribution weights for each Effect node can by A be doneEffect B separate pairwise comparisons or by M&S 0.8 0.2each node Contributions to 0.5sum 0.5to one to keep scale consistent Capability 1 1.0 Sub-Capability 1.1 Capability 2 Sub-Capability 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 Capability 4 0.2

Sub-Capability 3.1 0.4 0.4 Capability 6 Capability 5 0.4 0.2 0.7 Sub-Capability 2.2 Effect D 0.4 Capability 3 0.6 0.4 Effect C 0.6 Sub-Capability 4.1 0.6 0.5 Sub-Capability 4.2 Integrity - Service - Excellence 0.5 Sub-Capability 6.1

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