Looking to the future of the past: a

Looking to the future of the past: a

Looking to the future of the past: a new era in the analysis of historical census data? Eilidh Garrett, University of Essex. With thanks to: Alice Reid, Ros Davies; CAMPOP, University of Cambridge Andrew Blaikie; University of Aberdeen Leverhulme Trust Wellcome Trust ESRC Digitising Scotland Project General Register Office for Scotland/National Records for Scotland Despite over 50 years of concentrated research, we still do not know why fertility declined during the Demographic Transition. Cummins, 2011 Journal of Economic History, 71.2 p. 465 Published: 1917, 477 pages Published: 1923 260 pages Report on the twelfth decennial census of Scotland, Vol. 1 [Parts 1-23] Page 2,

published: 1912 Published 1913 Figure produced in Garrett, 1986. The Coale or Princeton Index of Marital fertility Ig Values of Ig by province of Europe, 1870 Coale and Watkins, The decline of Fertility in Europe 1986 (Princeton). Princeton Indeces: If Ig Ih Im Overall fertility Marital fertility Illegitimate fertility Proportions married Hutterite fertility age specific marital

fertility schedule applied to age distribution of women observed to give expected number of births. Index = observed/expected fertility Im measure of proportions married Scotland 1881: Ig M. Anderson & D.J. Morse, Population Studies, 47 (1993) 5-25 Statistical tables Census reports and Registrar Generals reports HISTPOP histpop.org Constrained by reporting geography and statistics published. Census of England and Wales, 1881, Population, Vol. III. Age, marriage, occupation, birth-place Forty-fourth annual report of the registrar-general (1881) BPP 1883 XX [C.3620] Page 35

Variations in Ig among the (registration) districts of England and Wales, 1861, 1891 and 1911 R.I. Woods The Demography of Victorian England and Wales 2000 (CUP) Fig 4.17 Considering fertility at the community level, using census data. Keighley, West Yorkshire: 1851-1881 census snapshots, linked census data 13 OPCS communities, England & Wales: 1891-1921 (anonymised): Abergavenny, Axminster, Bethnal Green, Banbury, Bolton, Earsdon, Morland, Pinner, Saffron Walden, Stoke, Swansea, Walthamstow, York. census snap shots 1911 fertility census Skye and Kilmarnock, Scotland: 1861-1901 census snapshots linked civil register and census data Ipswich, England: 1871-1901; 1911 census snapshots

linked vaccination register/civil register and census data 1911 findmypast links Belfast, Ireland: 1901 and 1911. census snapshots linked street register and census data 1911 findmypast links Garrett et al, 2001 The family of Alex and Johanna Beaton/Alexander and Hannah Bethune: censuses and civil registers, Skye 1861-1881 1861 census upper halistra alex johanna ann john donald beaton beaton beaton beaton

beaton head wife dau son son 26 tailor 26 6 scholar 3 1 alexander hanna ann john donald christy margaret bethune bethune

bethune bethune head wife dau son 38 merchant and dealer 38 16 domestic serv 12 scholar bethune dau 8 scholar mary maggie joanna dolina

bethune bethune dau dau 6 scholar 4 bethune dau john alexander hannah ann donald christina margaret mary maggie johanna dolina

agnes bethune bethune bethune head father mother 1871 census stein village 9mo died 30/04/1861 born 10/03/1862 born 09/08/1864 died 08/08/1865 born 09/08/1864 born 27/06/1866 ? born 19/07/1868 born 13/9/1870

1881 census stein 22 merchant 48 tailor 48 tailor's wife ? married Malcolm McLeod 20/04/1876 bethune sister 20 general servant bethune bethune bethune bethune bethune sister sister sister sister

sister 16 general servant 14 scholar 11 scholar 9 scholar 7 scholar born 14/12/1872 The McPhail Family of Jura Angus McPhail married Mary McColl; 27.4.54 Date of Birth MothersA ge at Birth Interbirth interval (years) 27.4.54 27.8.55

18.3.57 27.1.59 2.10.60 14.9.62 27.2.65 5.11.67 1875 29.5 30.8 1.3 Mary

1.6 32.4 34.3 36.0 Ann Margaret Archibald 1.9 1.7 38.0 2.0 Hugh

2.5 40.5 43.2 John Neil 2.7 50.0 (6.8) A 1911 census return from Ipswich, England Image: Findmypast.co.uk WILLIAM COBBOLD AND MARY ANN BIRD MARRIED IN IPSWICH, 4th quarter OF 1888. CHILDREN OF WILLIAM AND MARY ANN COBBOLD REGISTERED 1889-1908: name of child 1 William John

2 Alice Maud 3 John 4 Elsie 5 Eva 6 Christian 7 Un named girl twin * Alexandra 8 Un named boy twin * Albert 9 Mahela? Matilda? 10 Dorothy Mildred 11 Mary age91 age01 1 age11 10 20 6 4

1 0 0 17 14 11 8 2 birthdate 25/07/1889 02/09/1890 08/10/1892 30/04/1894 13/09/1896 12/06/1899 03/03/1901 03/03/1901 10/12/1902 11/04/1904 28/06/1908

deathdate 26/01/1890 22/10/1892 21/04/1902 28/04/1902 16/02/1905 Extract from the 1911 Census return of 14 Clune Place, Pottinger Ward, Belfast showing confusion in the filling out of the particulars as to marriage. http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/ Fertility census: Scotland, 1911: an example Reproduced by kind permission of the Registrar General for Scotland. Sample populations: drawn from selected wards & streets, Belfast 1911 Shankill: working class Protestant

Falls: working class Catholic Censuses of 1901 and 1911 37654 people in 1911 10% of Belfast in 1911 Street directories 1901, 1903, 1905, 1907, 1908, 1910 Windsor: middle class Protestant Allow detailed examination of mobility Moves by the Armour Family 1901-1911 1901 Census

5 Ligoniel St. (outskirts of Belfast) Mary (26) and Simon ARMOUR (28, quarry labourer) Living with 2 children and sharing house with Richard Proudford (44, widower, gardener) and his 5 children aged 4 - 16 1907 directory 29 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner 1908 directory 31 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner 1911 Census 59 Cambrai Street Simon (38, wood turner) & Mary (35) ARMOUR: married 14 years, 10 children 4 dead. 1910 Directory 130 Leopold Street: S. Armour, wood turner percentage of households present in 1911 which were there in previous years, married people, by age in 1911 20-24

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 65-69 70+

http://www.histpop.org/ Published census reports 1801-1931: GB, Scotland, England & Wales, Ireland Reports of the Registrars General: Scotland (1855-1919), England & Wales (1837-1920) http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/ Online, searchable databases Integrated Census Microdata: ICeM http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk/ Individual level census returns: Scotland (1851-1901), England & Wales (1851-1861, 1881-1911) NESSTAR Transcribed, geo-referenced contents of all birth marriage and death certificates of Scotland, 1855 - Linked?? England and Wales 1851, 1861, (1871), 1881, 1891, 1901, 1911 c.17-35 million records

http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk Anonymised (without names and addresses) and full versions of the datasets Scotland 1851, 1861, 1871, 1881, 1891, 1901, (1911) c.2.9-4.4 million records The parishes of Scotland, England & Wales, 1851. We are still asking: When did fertility decline start? Where did it start? Who started it? Why did it start? How was it achieved? We may now have the tools to answer these questions within our grasp The data underlying this map are taken from

Schurer, K. and Higgs, E., Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM); 1851 -1911 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], April 2014. SN: 7481 , http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7481-1. The Geographical Information System was constructed by Dr C. F. Roughley and Dr A. E. M. Satchell, both of the University of Cambridge. Further details are provided in E. Higgs, C. Jones, K. Schrer and A. Wilkinson, The Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) Guide, (2013), http://www.essex.ac.uk/history/research/icem/documents/icem_guide.pd An Atlas of Victorian Fertility (England and Wales) Births per married woman, in the 5 years before the 1881 census Source: ICeM data, quarterly census reports April 1876-March 1881 DRAFT MAP PLEASE DO NOT REPRODUCE WITHOUT PERMISSION. With thanks to Joe Day

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