Human Population Trends 2006 update Elizabeth Willott The
Human Population Trends 2006 update Elizabeth Willott The University of Arizona 2006 [email protected] Just for Fun Northwest Mutuals Longevity Game: http://www. nmfn.com/tn/learnctr--lifeevents--longevity How long do they predict youll live? How much is within your control? Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing
can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate. p. xi Obtaining Data: Key Sources Most statistics, unless otherwise indicated, are from one or more of the following: US Census: International Data http://www.census.gov CIA World Factbook 2006 http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook UN Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/ The reason for the problem?
We became highly successful at controlling disease and death. Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 Medical science, with its efficient public health programs, has been able to depress the death rate with astonishing rapidity and at the same time drastically increase the birth rate; healthier people have more babies. (p.32) DDT, an insecticide, worked effectively in reducing malaria in many developing countries. E.g., Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) Year Deaths per 1000 people 1946
22 1955 10 Note: this is not death rate due to malaria, but total death rate. Source: Ehrlich. The Population Bomb, 1971, p.16 RESULT: Many more babies since women lived through child-bearing age. Also, Potential for many, many more babies since children did not die and instead grew to reproductive age. Simple basic ecology: Remove the predators
(in this case the micropredators such as microbial diseases) and the prey increase. Net increase in a population is due to: births, B= Birth rate immigration, I= Immigration rate emigration, E= Emigration rate deaths, D= Death rate dN/dt = (B + I) - (E + D) If we consider the world population then dN/dt = Birthrate - Deathrate For more info: EO Wilson, WH Bossart, A primer of population ecology, c1971, Sinauer Associates. NJ Gotelli, A primer of ecology, c1995, Sinauer Associates. In classic population ecology, If, for any given time period, Births > Deaths then Population will always be increasing,
And, IF Birth Rate and Death Rate are constants, THEN, the population size is given by an exponential equation. An Exponential Equation, like y = 2x, or, in this case Nf= Ni x 1.5x 200 160 120 80 40 0 0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Was, or is, human population like this? Human Population to 1960 3.5 3
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Population in billions 0 1000 1250 1500 Year 1750 2000
Human Population to 2005 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Population in billions 0 1000 1250 1500 1750
2000 Year Source: UN Population Figures http://esa.un.org/unpp/ Projection and Reality Real 8 7 At 1960 rate 6 5
4 Population in billions 3 2 1940 1950 1960 1970 Year 1980 1990
2000 Projection and Reality How is the gap best explained? Whats happened to Overall rate? Birth rate? Death rate? World Population (in billions) 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
6.06 6.46 % increase 6.1 6.3 11.3 11.1 9.6 19.8 22.5 20.0 18.7 15.0 Rate of Population Change per Decade 25 20 15
10 % Change 5 1900- 1910- 19201910 0 1920 1930 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 19901940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Annual Growth Rate World Population More Solid Peak 2.19%, 1962-3 Now 1.14% est 2006 Apr 06 CIA Factbook est for 2006
Projected Ive presented data showing the world population is not increasing exponentially. The growth rate has been decreasing. Whats happening in absolute numbers of people added per year? Peak of 89 million in 1989 Now about 75 million History and Estimates Forecast Estimates US Census Bureau. Accessed June 24, 2006. http://www.census.gov # People Added Per Year (5 year average) *
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 # in 10 Millions 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975
1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 Years UN Population Data, 5 year averages, accessed Apr 18, 2006 # of People Added to World 1989 2006 94.4 million people added. 74.4 million. Source: CIA World Factbook
(for 2006: world population x 0.0114) The rate of increase has declined. The absolute number of people added has started to decline. Still, we have major increases. 1. What counts for the overall increase in population? Many countries have shown dramatic decreases in death rates. This is seen as an increase in longevity, or, decrease in mortality, or, in particular, decrease in infant mortality Lifespan (World) UN Population Division: 1950-1955:
46.6 years 2000-2005: 65.4 years Increase of > 40% Source: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ CIA World Factbook: 1989: 2006: 62 years 65 years Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006) Infant Mortality: (worldwide rate) Infant mortality: death prior to 1 year of age UN figures:
1950-1955: 2000-2005: 157 / 1000 57 / 1000 Source: UN Population Division, http://esa.un.org/unpp/ (accessed May 10, 2006) CIA World Factbook: 2006 (est): 49 / 1000 Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006) More women survive through child-bearing years, more babies born. More children survive to child-bearing years. Therefore, potential exists for even more babies to be born.
This explosive burst is what Garrett Hardin and Paul Ehrlich, back in the 1960s and early 1970s, envisioned happening. It didnt. Did women have more and more babies? Worldwide Births per Year (TOTAL numbers) 1950-1955: 99,044,000 2000-2005: 132,508,000 Source: UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ There are more babies now, true. But the population is much larger, too. These numbers dont support individual women having more and more babies. Whats the birthrate per population? Crude birth rate per year - Worldwide Births per Year / Total Population
1950-1955: 0.099 million / 2,780 million 2000-2005: 0.133 million / 6,450 million So, 35.63 births per thousand then vs. 20.54 births per thousand now (Above figures from UN; CIA Factbook gives estimate of 20.05 for birthrate/thousand for the world for 2006) Whats the birthrate per woman? Fertility Rate: Births per Woman (assumes woman lives through reproductive years) Worldwide: 1950 5.0 2006(est) 2.6 (UN ); 2.59 (CIA Factbook) Replacement is ~2.1 for developed countries. Replacement is ~2.3 for world now.
Sources: UN Population: http://esa.un.org/unpp CIA Factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook One well-documented correlation: When women have educational opportunities, birth rate drops quickly. Prehaps women having other opportunities is the key, not just educational ones. When women have other opportunities, birth rate drops relatively quickly. The Point? Women dont seem to be like calculating shepherdswanting as many children as they can bear as long as someone else is feeding them (as Hardin conjectured). Nor do they seem to be solely biological automatons determined by evolution to bear
babies in high number. Examples: India Haiti Iran Pakistan South Africa Nigeria Guatemala United States China Indonesia Niger (There are ~238 countries in the world.) India
Population 1,095 million Pop. growth rate 1.38 % Total fertility rate 2.73 children/women Life expectancy at birth 64.71 yrs Birth rate 22.01 / 1000 Death rate 8.18 / 1000 Median age 24.9 yrs HIV rate: 0.9 % Infant mortality 54.63 / 1000 live births Literacy rate59.5 % Land phones: 67.3 million - Male 70.2 % Cell phones: 69.2 million - Female 48.3 % Internet users: 50.6 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Andra Pradesh, India. Area of very rapid economic and cultural change
presently (last 15 years or so). Higher proportion of illiterate women now use birth control. Their daughters are much more likely to go to school. Bhat, P. N. M. (2002). "Returning a favor: reciprocity between female education and fertility in India." World Development 30(10): 1791-1803. McNay, K. and P. Arokiasamy, R.H. Cassen (2003) Why are uneducated women in India using contraception? A multilevel analysis. Population Studies 57 (1) 21-40. Education and Fertility Fertility Rate of Woman (Family Size) Education Level of Woman Fertility and Education
Education of Offspring Children of illiterate mothers are more likely to attend school if family size is limited Family Size (particularly of illiterate mothers) Andra Pradesh, India Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh. This area is undergoing rapid social change coincident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years. For article on DDS, see
Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau: ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262. The DDS in Andra Pradesh, India Among other projects, the DDS provided microloans to untouchable women so women could have cell phone to rent to others, thereby generating a livelihood for themselves. In so doing, this also worked to change the culture since suddenly the phones were touchable and it became acceptable to negotiate with the untouchable women. The breakdown of the caste system is making more opportunities available for women. This cell-phone project is only possible as a society transitions from no phones to many people having cell phones. The current DDS website does not discuss the cell-phone project any longer.
DDS website is found at http://www.ddsindia.com/www/default.asp Whats Happening With Phones? From CIA Factbook for 2006: Landlines worldwide: Cell phones worldwide: Internet users 1.21 billion 1.75 billion 1.02 billion United States Population 298.4 million Pop. growth rate 0.91 % Total fertility rate 2.09 children/women Life expectancy at birth 77.85 yrs Birth rate 14.14 / 1000 Death rate 8.26 / 1000 Median age 36.5 yrs
HIV rate: 0.6 % Infant mortality 6.43 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 99 % Land phones: 268 million - Male 99 % Cell phones: 194.5million - Female 99 % Internet users: 203.4 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. MALE US 2006 5 year age increments Population in millions Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006
FEMALE MALE US 1960 US 2006 Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006 FEMALE MALE FEMALE US 1960 Note 1930-1940 depression
US 2006 Note more older females Also note column appearance in last almost 50 years. Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006 Guatemala Population 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 % Total fertility rate 3.82 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.38 yrs Birth rate 29.88 / 1000 Death rate 5.22 / 1000 Median age 18.9 yrs HIV rate: 1.1 % Infant mortality 39.94 / 1000 live births Literacy rate
70.6 % Land phones: 1.13 million - Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million - Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Guatemala Babies per woman: 1990: 5.6 1999: 4.8 2006 est. 3.8 Was highest fertility rate in the Americas. Now Haiti is highest with 4.94.
CIA Factbook, est for 2006 http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html Also US Census: http://www.census.gov Guatemala 1981 2006 1991 Note change in lowest 3-4 bars in these years. Guatemala not expanding in rate as it was 15 years ago Still, a high proportion of the population are children and there
are many of them! Haiti (now highest fertility in Americas) Population 8.31 million Pop. growth rate 2.3 % Total fertility rate 4.94 children/women Life expectancy at birth 52.23 yrs Birth rate 36.44 / 1000 Death rate 12.17 / 1000 Median age 18.2 yrs HIV rate: 5.6 % Infant mortality 71.65 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 52.9 % Land phones: 0.14 million - Male 54.8 % Cell phones: 0.40 million - Female 51.2 % Internet users: 0.50 million
SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Haiti 1986 2006 NOTE: More females in older categories. Iran Background: 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. ~1 million die. On the society: Nafisi, A. (2003). Reading Lolita in Tehran. New York, Random House. On the fertility decline: Aghajanian, A. and A. H. Mehryar (1999). "Fertility Transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1976-1996." AsiaPacific Population Journal 14(1): http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/journal/1999/v1
4n1tc.htm. Iran Population 68.7 million Pop. growth rate 1.1 % Total fertility rate 1.8 children/women Life expectancy at birth 70.26 yrs Birth rate 17 / 1000 Death rate 5.55 / 1000 Median age 24.8 yrs HIV rate: < 0.1 % Infant mortality 40.3 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 70.26 % Land phones: 14.6 million - Male 79.4 % Cell phones: 4.3 million - Female 73 % Internet users: 7.5 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.
Iran, 1986 Note boat shape in 2006, versus acceleration shape of 1986 * Iran, 2006 Looks as if ~600,000 babies born ~1980-1985 did not survive to adulthood. Would be good to compare 1991, 1996, 2001 as well to see * if pattern emerges
Can it be cell-phones? Well, really communication and possible opportunities There was no way Ehrlich or Hardin could have predicted this. Nor the UN, nor US Census bureau, nor CIA. Anecdotal evidence suggests cell phones may play role! Guatemala radically deregulated phones a few years ago. Iranian mother of two of my students mentioned cell phones and satellite TV as reason for decreased birth rate in Iran Andra Pradesh, India Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh. This area is undergoing rapid social change coincident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years. For article on DDS, see Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau:
ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262. India 1996 Almost perfect pyramid shape; so NOT exponential growth. Note flattening of edges; maybe moving to India 2006 column shape? China Population 1314 millionPop. growth rate 0.59 % Total fertility rate 1.73 children/women Life expectancy at birth 72.58 yrs Birth rate 13.25 / 1000 Death rate 6.97 / 1000
Median age 32.7 yrs HIV rate: 0.1 % Infant mortality 23.12 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 90.9 % Land phones: 312 million - Male 95.1 % Cell phones: 335 million - Female 86.5 % Internet users: 111 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. China 1991 Note: Boat shape of last 20 years. 2006 Male:Female Sex Ratios: 0-4 yr old: 1.158
5-9 yr old: 1.155 China 2006 China 2006 Some factories in China are now reporting difficulty getting young workers. Workers are demanding raises, reduced work hours See one example of a response to Googling: manpower shortage China http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060501/ts_csm/ohelpwanted Pakistan Population 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 % Total fertility rate 3.82 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.38 yrs Birth rate 29.88 / 1000 Death rate 5.22 / 1000 Median age 18.9 yrs HIV rate: 1.1 %
Infant mortality 39.94 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 70.6 % Land phones: 1.13 million - Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million - Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Pakistan 1986 Pakistan 2006 Indonesia Population 245.5 million
Pop. growth rate 1.41 % Total fertility rate 2.4 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.87 yrs Birth rate 20.34 / 1000 Death rate 6.25 / 1000 Median age 26.8 yrs HIV rate: <0.1 % Infant mortality 34.39 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 87.9 % Land phones: 9.99 million - Male 92.5 % Cell phones: 30 million - Female 83.4 % Internet users: 18 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Indonesia 1991
Indonesia 2006 South Africa Population 44.2 million Pop. growth rate -0.4 % Total fertility rate 2.2 children/women Life expectancy at birth 42.73 yrs Birth rate 18.2 / 1000 Death rate 22 / 1000 Median age 24.1 yrs HIV rate (adult): 21.5 % Infant mortality 60.66 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 86.4 % Land phones: 4.84 million - Male 87 % Cell phones: 19.5 million - Female
85.7 % Internet users: 3.5 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. South Africa 1986 South Africa 2006 Note step-like character to 1986, and subsequent boat-like shape of 2006. HIV/AIDS is prevalent in South Africa leading to increased deaths of infants and young children. Also, condoms are effective contraception and condom use is
up due to HIV/AIDS. Only a few countries are not showing a reduction in fertility rate (if higher than replacement). The majority of those countries are involved, or were recently involved, in war. Countries with high fertility rates are mainly in Africa and the Middle East, plus Afghanistan. Most of Europe, the far east, and southeast Asia are below replacement fertility. World Population 6525 millionPop. growth rate 1.14 % Total fertility rate 2.59 children/women Life expectancy at birth 64.77 yrs Birth rate 20.05 / 1000 Death rate 8.67 / 1000 Median age 27 yrs HIV rate: N/A Infant mortality 48.87 / 1000 live births
Literacy rate 82 % Land phones: 1.21 billion - Male 87 % Cell phones: 1.75 billion - Female 77 % Internet users: 1.12 billion SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Worldwide Fertility Rate/Woman 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Population increase still occurs if 1. Increase in longevity 2. Lots of youngsters still growing up! Changes in Population Pyramid - World (Numbers indicate % of total population) Age Categories http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
20.0 Age Distribution - Absolute numbers - World 1955, 1996, 2006 80-89 2006 1996 1955 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 10-19 Population (in millions)
0-9 0 250 500 750 Age Category 1000 Note: Curve is 1) expanding in 1955; 2) more steplike in 1996; and 3) we start to
see column shape in 2006. Data: US 1250 Census Population increase still occurs if 1. Increase in longevity 2. Lots of youngsters still growing up! HIV/AIDS is causing decreases in population in most-effected countries. Prevention via condoms is effective birth control! Countries with high fertility/woman rates: Niger Mali Somalia Uganda Afghanistan Yemen
Burundi Burkina Faso 7.46 7.42 6.76 6.71 6.69 6.58 6.55 6.47 Congo (Kinshasa) Angola Chad Sierra Leone Congo (Brazzaville)
6.45 6.35 6.25 6.08 6.07 Liberia 6.02 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, International Data Base; accessed June 22, 2006. http://www.census.gov/ (All countries 6 babies/women are listed above.) Niger - 2006 Fertility rate of 7.46 births / women Source: US Census bureau
Niger Population 12.5 million Pop. growth rate 2.92 % Total fertility rate 7.46 children/women Life expectancy at birth 43.76 yrs Birth rate 50.73 / 1000 Death rate 20.91 / 1000 Median age 16.5 yrs HIV rate: 1.2 % Infant mortality 118.3 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 17.6 % Land phones: 0.024 million - Male 25 % Cell phones: 0.148 million - Female 9.7 % Internet users: 0.024 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.
Ten Most Populous Countries China India United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Russia Nigeria Japan Population 1,313,973,713 1,095,351,995 298,444,215 245,452,739 188,078,227 165,803,560
Source: US Census bureau Nigeria Population 131.9 million Pop. growth rate 2.38 % Total fertility rate 5.49 children/women Life expectancy at birth 47.08 yrs Birth rate 40.43 / 1000 Death rate 16.94 / 1000 Median age 18.7 yrs HIV rate: 5.4 % Infant mortality 97.14 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 68 % Land phones: 1.03 million - Male 75.7 % Cell phones: 9.15 million - Female 60.6 %
Internet users: 1.77 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006. Percentage of People in Urban Environment (Worldwide) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 From UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/
MEDIAN AGE (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/) Year World More Less Least 1950 23.9 29.0 21.4 19.6 1955 23.5 29.4 20.8 19.1 1960 23.2
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