Longview 2020 Forum by the Hibbs Institute Wednesday,

Longview 2020 Forum by the Hibbs Institute Wednesday,

Longview 2020 Forum by the Hibbs Institute Wednesday, March 6, 2019 1 www.uttyler.edu/hibbs-institute 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 Longview MSA Definitions Gross Regional Product Largest Industries Unemployment Rates Employment by Industry Outlook; Wages, Location Quotients Largest Industries Change (2010-2018) Employment by Occupation Outlook; Wages, Location Quotients Largest Occupations Change (2010-2018)

Employment Forecast / Comparison with Tyler and East Texas 16 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) The most common way of classifying employment by businesses is to use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), a system that starts with 20 main business categories or industry sectors, commonly known as 2-digit industries. Each of those 20 main industry categories are comprised of detailed subsector industry classifications going all the way to specific 6digit lists of all kinds of business activities Source: U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ 17 2017 NAICS Sector Description 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale Trade 44-45 Retail Trade 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 72 Accommodation and Food Services 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 92 Public Administration 18 Sector 72 Accommodation and Food Services 721 Accommodation 7211 Traveler Accommodation 7212 RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps 7213 Rooming and Boarding Houses, Dormitories, and Workers' Camps 722 Food Services and Drinking Places 7223 Special Food Services 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places 72251 Restaurants and Other Eating Places

722511 Full-Service Restaurants 722513 Limited-Service Restaurants 722514 Cafeterias, Grill Buffets, and Buffets 722515 Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars 19 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) The 2018 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system is a federal statistical standard used by federal agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of 867 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, detailed occupations are combined to form 459 broad occupations, 98 minor groups, and 23 major groups. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/soc/ 20 2018 SOC System 11-0000 Management Occupations

13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations 23-0000 Legal Occupations 25-0000 Educational Instruction and Library Occupations 27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 33-0000 Protective Service Occupations 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations 49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 51-0000 Production Occupations 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 55-0000 Military Specific Occupations 21 SOC 39 Personal Care and Service 39-1000 Supervisors of Personal Care and Service Workers Occupations

39-2000 Animal Care and Service Workers 39-3000 Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers 39-3010 Gambling Services Workers 39-3011 Gambling Dealers 39-3012 Gambling and Sports Book Writers and Runners 39-3019 Gambling Service Workers, All Other 39-3020 Motion Picture Projectionists 39-3021 Motion Picture Projectionists 39-3030 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers 39-3031 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers 39-3090 Miscellaneous Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers 39-3091 Amusement and Recreation Attendants 39-3092 Costume Attendants 39-3093 Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants 39-3099 Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers, All Other 39-4000 Funeral Service Workers39-5000 Personal Appearance Workers 22 Location Quotient (LQ) Is one of the most commonly utilized methods in Regional Economics. Essentially, this technique compares the share of employment in a local economy for some industries to the

share of jobs in a reference economy (typically the state or the nation) for the same industry. Location Quotients are very useful to identify areas of specialization generally resulting from the labor force characteristics, geographic location, or a competitive advantage with respect to other areas. 23 Location Quotient (LQ) LQ = (Employment in Industry x in Longview/ Total Employment in Longview) (Employment in Industry x in Texas / Total Employment in Texas) Interpretation: An LQ = 1 means that the area under consideration (East Texas in this case) has the same percentage of employment in that industry as does the area it is being compared to (in this case, Texas). An LQ < 1 means that such sector is under-represented in East Texas because it has a smaller percentage of employees than does the state. An LQ > 1 means that the proportion of employment in such sector is X times greater than the

proportion of employment in Texas. 24 Gross Regional Product Longview MSA $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Longview MSA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, provided by JobsEQ. 25 $14 Gross Regional Product Longview and Tyler MSAs

$12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Longview MSA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, provided by JobsEQ. Tyler MSA 26 Gross Regional Product by Industry (nine largest industries, by output in dollars) Longview MSA Manufacturing (13.1%) $1.29 Construction (10.1%) $1.00 Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction (9.6%)

$0.95 Health Care and Social Assistance (8.7%) $0.86 Wholesale Trade (8.2%) $0.81 Retail Trade (8.2%) $0.76 Real Estate (7.3%) $0.72 Educational Services (5.1%) $0.50 Transportation and Warehousing (4.4%) $0.43

$0.00 $0.20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, provided by JobsEQ. $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 74.2 % 27 Unemployment Rate Longview MSA 9.0%

8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longview MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. 28 9.0% Unemployment Rate Longview and Tyler MSAs 8.0%

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longview MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. Tyler MSA 29 3.2 3.0 2.8 Longview MSA, Employment Profile (by Industry) Mining, Oil and Gas 5,667

2.6 2.4 Location Quotient, 2018 2.2 2.0 Constructio n 10,803 1.8 1.6 1.4 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities 1,629 0.8 0.6 0.4 Utilities 901 Retail Trade 11,004

Other Services 5,057 1.2 1.0 Manufacturing 10,230 Wholesale Trade 4,603 Health Care and Social Assistance 15,054 Accommodatio n and Food Services 8,568 Public Administration 2,816 Educatio nal Services 8,386 Administrative and Support Services 5,454

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 744 Informatio n 1,221 Finance/Insurance 2,858 Real Estate 1,680 Professional and Technical Services 3,787 Transportation /Warehousing 3,518 0.2 0.0 $10,000 Management 319

$20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Average Annual Wages, 2018 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. Location Quotient calculations made by the Hibbs Institute. 30 3.2 3.0

66.8% (7/20) 2.8 2.6 2.4 Location Quotient, 2018 2.2 2.0 Mining, Oil and Gas 5,667 Constructio n 10,803 1.8 1.6 1.4 Retail Trade 11,004 1.2 1.0

0.8 Manufacturing 10,230 Health Care and Social Assistance 15,054 Accommodation and Food Services 8,568 Educatio nal Services 8,386 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

$60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Average Annual Wages, 2017 31 Longview MSA, Employment Change, 2010-2018 (by Industry) Real Estate (1.6%) Accommodation and Food Services (8.2%) Construction (10.3%) Health Care and Social Assistance (14.4%) Wholesale Trade (4.4%) Finance/Insurance (2.7%) Other Services (4.8%) Professional and Technical Services (3.6%) Transportatio n/Warehousing (3.4%) Administrativ e and Support Services (5.2%) Educational Services (8.0%)

Mining, Oil and Gas (5.4%) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (0.7%) Retail Trade (10.5%) Manufacturing (9.8%) Public Administration (2.7%) Util ities (0.9%) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Huntin g (1.6%) Information (1.2%) Management (0.3%) -35.7% -40% 15.7% 14.0% 9.6% 9.3% 8.6% 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.1% -1.3% -2.7% -3.0% -3.1%

-4.1% -6.7% -8.3% -15.8% -15.8% -23.4% -30% -20% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. -10% 0% 10% 20% 32 Longview MSA, Employment Profile (by Occupations) 1.7

Constructio n and Extraction 9,138 1.6 1.5 Productio n 7,789 1.4 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 5,350 Location Quotient, 2018 1.3 1.1 Personal Care and Service 4,317 Sales and Related 10,715 0.8

Protective Service 1,745 Life, Physical, and Social Science 587 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1,228 Offi ce and Administrative Support 14,468 0.6 Management 5,861 Education, Training, and Library 5,930 Food Preparatio n Building and and Serving Related Grounds Cleaning 8,803 and Maintenance

3,312 0.7 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 5,701 Transportation and Material Moving 7,378 1.0 0.9 Community and Social Service 1,610 Healthcare Support 3,216 1.2 Legal 650 Architecture and Engineering 1,625

Business and Financial Operatio ns 3,315 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 259 Computer and Mathematical 1,384 0.5 0.4 0.3 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

$80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 Average Annual Wages, 2018 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. Location Quotient calculations made by the Hibbs Institute. 33 Longview MSA, Employment Profile (by Occupations) 1.7 Constructio n and Extraction 9,138 1.6 66.8

% 1.5 Productio n 7,789 1.4 Location Quotient, 2018 1.3 1.2 Sales and Related 10,715 1.1 Transportation and Material Moving 7,378 1.0 0.9 Healthcare Practitio ners and Technical 5,701

Management 5,861 Education, Training, and Library 5,930 Food Preparatio n and Serving Related 8,803 0.8 Offi ce and Administrative Support 14,468 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000

$40,000 $50,000 $60,000 72.6% (9/22) $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 Average Annual Wages, 2018 34 Longview MSA, Employment Change, 2010-2018 (by Occupations)

Personal Care and Service (4.1%) 11.9% Food Preparatio n and Serving Related (8.4%) Transportation and Material Moving (7.1%) Community and Social Service (1.5%) Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance (3.2%) Healthcare Support (3.1%) Construction and Extraction (8.8%) Office and Administrativ e Support (13.9%) Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (5.5%) Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (5.1%) Sales and Related (10.3%) Education, Training, and Library (5.7%) Production (7.5%) Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media (1.2%) Management (5.6%) Protective Service (1.7%) Business and Financial Operatio ns (3.2%) Architecture and Engineering (1.6%) Computer and Mathematical (1.3%) Life, Physical, and Social Science (0.6%) Legal (0.6%) Farming, Fishing, and Forestry (0.2%) -40%

10.9% 7.6% 6.6% 5.0% 4.8% 3.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.4% -1.4% -2.0% -2.2% -2.7% -3.4% -5.9% -7.3% -10.5% -11.9% -12.5% -13.3% -27.5% -30% -20% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ.

-10% 0% 10% 20% 35 Longview MSA Total Employment 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 2020 2019 2018

2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

2004 2003 2002 2001 90,000 Longview, TX MSA Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by JobsEQ. 36 Longview and Tyler MSAs Total Employment Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided by 37 Longview MSA

East Total Texas Employment Tyler MSA 38 Thank you!! 39

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