Northwest Energy: A Look at the Past, Present

Northwest Energy: A Look at the Past, Present

Northwest Energy: A Look at the Past, Present and Future of Electricity Generation in the Pacific Northwest QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Jesse Jenkins (RNP) November 7th, 2006 1 Overview I. Introduction II. Past: where were coming from II. Present: where were at III. Future: where do we want to go? IV. Conclusions 2

I. Introduction Me recent UO graduate (class of 06) now work for the Renewable Northwest Project in Portland (policy research associate) Renewable Northwest Project (RNP) founded in 1994 unique coalition of, consultants, developers, consumer & environmental groups, etc. seek responsible development of renewable energy in the Pacific Northwest. 3 II. The Past: a Brief History of Northwest Electricity Generation Historical Northwest Electricity Capacity by Resource 60,000 Growth met with new NG - 1990s-2000s

50,000 Petroleum / Petr. Coke Biomass Growth met with new Coal - 1970s-90s 40,000 Nuclear 30,000 Wind (and other renewables) Energy False start Conservation! with Nukes

- 1970s-80s (NW Power Act - 1980) Growth met with new Hydro - 1890s-1970s Natural Gas 20,000 Operating Capacity (MW) Coal 10,000 Hydro 0 1900

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Year 4 Date source: NW Power and Conservation Council (http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powersupply/existingprojects.xls) II. The Present: PACIFIC NORTHWEST GENERATING CAPABILITY Nuclear 3% Natural gas Wind 2% Petroleum & Pet Coke 0% Hydr

o Coal 20% Northwest Power and Average water & maximum thermal plant Conservation Council availability. Biomas s September 2006 5 6 QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture. Source: RNP (http://www.rnp.org/Projects/projectlist.php) - Abundant resources - >1,386 MW currently serving NW Load 7 III. The Future: Demand Continues to Grow ? 8 Source: NWPCC 5th Power Plan (vol. 2), p. 2-4 III. The Future: Coal? Coal: Cheap Relatively abundant

Dirty! Utilities love their coal: cheap baseload (reliable) power (For the most part) dont have to pay for public health costs 150+ coal plants proposed in the West QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 9 Over 150 Coal-fired Power Plants Proposed in the West Pacific Mountain Lower Columbia QuickTime and a

TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 10 III. The Future: Coal = Risky Business Coal is a risk for everyone: cheap now, but fuel costs already rising: up 20% from 03-05. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Investments in coal now will cost customers later. Increasing environmental regulations Carbon restrictions coming soon Regional regulations: CA and Northeast Industry asking Congress to limit carbon emissions - want certainty Only a matter of time now Invest in coal = export NW jobs and $$$ to MT, WY for fuel

Moral issue: people in MT, WY bare environmental costs of mining and 11 power plant pollution for our power consumption III. The Future: Natural Gas? Natural Gas: Low capital (upfront) costs High fuel costs Cleaner than coal Natural gas prices very volatile QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 12

III. The Future: Natural Gas? U.S. Historic Natural Gas Prices (Volatile and Unpredictable) 13 12 11 Daily price history of 1st-nearby 10 NYMEX natural gas futures contract 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Nominal $/MMBtu (Henry Hub)

1 0 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 NYMEX natural gas futures strip from 09/13/2005

13 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2009 2010 Source: LBNL No III. The Future: Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Imported from Indonesia, Qatar, Iran, Russia, etc. More dependence on foreign fossil fuels Exporting $$$ overseas Potential security risk (terminals and tankers) Several LNG terminals proposed for Northwest QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 14 III. The Future: Renewables? NW has abundant renewable energy potential: Western Governors Association developable potential by 2015: Wind: 2,310-7,735 MW (693-2,321 aMW) Solar: 325-500 MW (71.5-111 aMW) Geothermal: 1,290 MW (1,187 aMW) Total: 3,925-9,525 MW (1,951-3,617 aMW) 72% of 5,000 aMW forecasted growth by 2025

QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompresso are needed to see this picture. 15 III. The Future: Conservation + Renewables = More than Enough Expected demand growth by 2025: 5,000 aMW Conservation and Efficiency: 2,800 aMW (NWPCC) Renewables: ~2,000-3,600 aMW (WGA) Total: 4,800-6,400 aMW So who needs coal or natural gas? 16 III. The Future: Benefits of Renewables Provides power at stable, predictable price for many years - (Fossil fuel prices volatile & unpredictable.)

Helps fight global warming: no/low emissions, offsets fossil fuels Economic Development: it creates jobs & tax revenue Domestic resources: Keep jobs and $ local instead of sending elsewhere to buy their fuels (e.g.. coal from WY, gas from Canada). Minimal water use Public Health Benefits Doesnt have air & water pollution impacts of fossil fuels Customers want it: PGE poll: 75% customers want RE and efficiency, <10% want coal. 17 III. The Future: So Where Do We Want to Go? Coal? Natural Gas? Conservation + Renewables? QuickTime and a

TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Its our energy future: what do we want it to look like? QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 18 A Clean Energy Future is Possible: Its up to us to make it happen! 19 20 Policy Solutions Renewable Energy Standard / Renewable

Portfolio Standard (RPS) Purpose have electric utilities gradually increase amount of new RE in electricity supply to certain % by certain year. Gov. Kulongoski: 25% by 2025 proposed for Oregon Washington ballot initiative (I-937): 15% by 2020 Create a stable market for renewables, encourage siting of domestic manufacturing, create jobs, economic development, health benefits 21 20 States Have RPS Policies MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010; 10% goal by 2015 ME: 30% by 2000 RI: 15% by 2020

WI: 10% by 2015 NY: 24% by 2013 *NV: 20% by 2015 IA: 105 MW CA:20% 1% annual increase CT: 10% by 2010 *NJ: 24% by 2021 *CO: 10% by 2015 IL: 8% by 2013 by 2017 (2) *AZ: 15% MA: 4% by 2009 + *PA: 18% by 2020

*DE: 10% by 2019 *NM: 10% by 2011 *MD: 7.5% by 2019 *DC: 11% by 2022 by 2025 TX: 5880 MW by 2015 State RPS HI: 20% by 2020 Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council. www.dsireusa.org, July 2006 Goal *Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for solar PA: 8% Tier I, 10% Tier II (includes non-renewable sources) 2 CA: 33% by 2020 under review

22 Policy Solutions Incentives Public health, energy security and economic development benefits of renewables all warrant incentives Federal Production Tax Credit is biggest factor State incentives too (OR and WA offer strong package of incentives) Environmental Regulations / Carbon Cap Stricter environmental regulations force polluters to pay Renewables have no emissions so more competitive Cost of carbon needs to be included (carbon cap or tax) 23

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