Party Brands and Partisanship - Kellogg Institute

Party Brands and Partisanship - Kellogg Institute

Affluence and Congruence Unequal Representation Around the World Noam Lupu Vanderbilt University Zach Warner Cardiff University Notre Dame April 8, 2019 Democracy and representation Do elected representatives reflect the preferences of citizens?

Pro-rich bias in the U.S. assumed to be driven by campaign finance Is the U.S. exceptional? o If not, why is there a bias? Affluence and Congruence 2/10 What is representation?

Responsiveness vs. Congruence Dyadic representation vs. Collective representation Affluence and Congruence 3/10 How would we know? Ideal: compare mass preferences and outcomes on all

policies o o o Gilens comes closest Bartels compares median voter ideology to Senator NOMINATE Not available comparatively Compare elite and mass survey responses o o Elite responses correlate with behavior (esp. unconstrained) Congruence itself matters Affluence and Congruence

4/10 Data Every available legislator/candidate survey with left-right ideology question Match to mass survey in the same country-year 90,000 elite observations, 3.9 million mass observations

563 country-years across 52 countries / 30 years o Mostly Europe and Latin America Affluence and Congruence 5/10 Aggregate analysis Construct mass-elite dyads o o 99 million observations, 3.9 million random effects Two alternatives

Drop random effects and use IWLS Bootstrap estimates of uncertainty by taking 250 samples of 50K EMD: Lupu, Selios, and Warner (2017) Compute for mass quintile of affluence (material wealth, income, occupation) Affluence and Congruence 6/10 Affluence bias

Affluence and Congruence 7/10 Beyond left and right Left-right measures collapse lots of issues High rates of non-response to left-right questions LAPOP-PELA data o o

Identical issue questions 2010, 2012, 2014 waves Affluence and Congruence 8/10 Bias by issue area Affluence and Congruence 9/10 What is the direction of the bias? Affluence and Congruence 10/10

Summary of findings Representation is biased on average Direction seems to depend on issue o o Rich on economic issues (right) Poor on social issues (right) Reasons for these biases are not well-understood o

o o Structural variables (e.g., economic inequality, left government, unionization, political competition, globalization) Class backgrounds Vote choice Affluence and Congruence 11/10

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