Modeling Vegetation Dynamics with LPJ-GUESS

Modeling Vegetation Dynamics with LPJ-GUESS

Modeling Vegetation Dynamics with LPJ-GUESS K A T I E I R E L A N D , A N D Y H A N S E N, A N D B E N P O U LT E R Stand to Global Scale Modeling Approaches Stand-scale models Gap (i.e., ZELIG ) Growth-Yield (i.e. FVS) Landscape models Mechanistic (FireBGCv2) Deterministic (SIMMPLE) Global Models DGVMS (MAPSS) Need for Management at Large Spatial Scales Fire Insects

Disease Climate change Land-use change Need ecosystem-scale science, management Hansen et al. 2011. Bioscience 61:363373 What do we mean by ecosystem-scale? Cross management boundaries Ecological flows Crucial habitat

Effective size Human edge effects Range of sizes ~5500 143,000 km2 contiguous habitat Hansen et al. 2011. Bioscience 61:363373 Stand to Global Scale Modeling Approaches Stand-scale models Gap (i.e., ZELIG ) Growth-Yield (i.e. FVS) Landscape models Mechanistic (FireBGCv2) Deterministic

(SIMMPLE) Ecosystem-scale models LPJ-GUESS Global Models DGVMS (MAPSS) Desired Model Characteristics For modeling vegetation dynamics at greater ecosystem scales: Capable of simulating individual species/communities Links climate with ecosystem processes Simulates disturbance Large spatial scale Ex. Yellowstone & Grand Teton Ecosystem ~42,500 km 2 LPJ-GUESS Overview Inputs LPJ-GUESS

Climate data: monthly temp., precip., shortwave radiation, CO2 Photosynthesis Respiration Allocation Establishment, growth, mortality, decomposition Soil data: soil texture Vegetation: PFT/species, bioclimatic limits, ecophysiological parameters Outputs Vegetation types Biomass Carbon storage C & H20 fluxes NPP, NEE Fire-induced mortality

CO2, etc. emissions Fuel consumption Vegetation Dynamics in LPJ-GUESS LPJ-DVM: Population Mode PFTs GUESS: Individual/Cohort Mode PFTs or species Simplisti c veg. Gap veg dynamics Dynamic s No

cohorts Coarse Cohorts Fine Bioclimatic Niche Each PFT assigned bioclimatic limits Survive prevailing climatic conditions Variables Tcmin min. coldest month temperature, survival Tcmax max. coldest month temperature, establishment GDDmin min. GDD sum (5oC), establishment Tw-c,min min. warmest coldest month temperature range

Fire Dynamics SPITFIRE model LPJ-GUESS Vegetation pattern Climate Temp, precip, radiation, CO2 Emissions CO2, CO, CH4, NOx Vegetation (type, crown height, length, DBH) Litter (size, moisture, distribution) Plant mortality/damage Wind (speed, direction)

Comparisons: LPJ-GUESS, BIOME-BGC, FireBGCv2 BIOME-BGC FireBGCv2 LPJ-GUESS Spatial Scale Stand to global Landscape Stand to global Vegetation Representation Biomes (static) Individual tree

(dynamic) PFTs or species cohorts (dynamic) Input Variables Daily climate, Daily climate, ecophysiological site variables, parameters ecophysiological parameters Monthly climate, soil texture, ecophysiological parameters Output Variables

C, N, and H2O fluxes C, N, H2O, vegetation, fire C, H2O fluxes, vegetation, fire Disturbance Fire Fire, insects, disease Fire Spatially interactive No

Yes No LPJ-GUESS & PNV Shifts in Europe By 2085: NCAR-PCM: 31% in different PNV HadCM3: 42% in different PNV Forest replaces tundra Broad-leaved temperate forest expands northward Mediterranean forest shifts to shrubland Hickler et al. 2012 Global Ecology & Biogeography 21: 50-63 LPJ-GUESS for Ecosystem-scale

Modeling? Pros Cons Capable of Lack of spatial simulating individual species Species dynamic Large-scale applications Links climate to vegetation change interactions Dispersal Disturbance

Parameters for North American tree species Stochastic establishment/mortality Computationally intensive

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