Current Activities of BRI in Lao PDR - BRI-SDGs

Current Activities of BRI in Lao PDR - BRI-SDGs

BRI Progress in Mongolia Enkh-Amgalan Byambajav, National Consultant of Mongolia, UNDESA Workshop on Assessing the Potential Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Sustainable Development Goals in Asian Economies Bangkok, Thailand 25-26 September 2019 CONTENT Country profile: Mongolia BRI in Mongolia Conclusion Country profile: Mongolia Population Capital Ulaanbaatar Area (km2) Human Development Index GDP GDP per capita Landlocked between 3,238,479 1,444,700 1,561,100 0.741 (92th) 13 billion USD 4009 USD China and Russia

(2019) (2019) (603.863 sq.mi) (2017) (2018) (2018) Mongolia is a lower-middle-income country with a GDP of 13 billion USD (2018) In 2018, annual economic growth rate was 7.2 percent Average GDP growth rate between 1990-1999 is -0.4% Average GDP growth rate between 2000-2009 is 5.9% Average GDP growth rate between 2010-2018 is 7.9% The growth rate changes following the commodity prices in the world economy because of its dependency from the mining sector. GDP per capita has increased 4.2 times between 2000-2009 from 450$ to 1882$ GDP per capita has increased 1.6 times between 2010-2018 from 2488$ to 4009$ Foreign trade in 2018 Mongolia exports 7.0 billion USD and imports 5.9 billion USD with the balance of 1.1 billion USD. Mongolia exported goods to 74 countries and 96% of total exports went to China. The main types of exports come from mining and minerals, and agricultural industry. Furthermore, 78.1% of the total imports are from Russia and China. Main import goods are food products, clothing, machinery, vehicles and fuel. Mongolia imports approximately 99% of its petroleum needs from Russia.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Six Economic Corridors Source: New Delhi Times Background of BRI in Mongolia Figure 1: Major Political Events related to BRI in Mongolia Focus on economic cooperation The first trilateral meeting of Mongolian President Ts.Elbegdorj, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin September, 2014 Dushanbe Signed MOU on Formulating Guidelines for Constructing China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor /32 projects/ The second trilateral meeting of Mongolian President Ts.Elbegdorj, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin 9 July, 2015 Ufa Source: Authors compiling from various sources Signed the Project Outline for Constructing the ChinaMongolia-Russia Economic Corridor The third trilateral meeting of Mongolian President Ts.Elbegdorj, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin 23 June, 2016 Tashkent Attended first BRI forum, Signed bilateral economic cooperation documents Meeting of Prime minister J.Erdenebat, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime minister Li Keqiang

14-15 May, 2017 Beijing Background of BRI in Mongolia (continue) Figure 1: Major Political Events related to BRI in Mongolia The center is responsible for conducting research on technology, economic estimation, research on coordinating regulations of the three countries and so on. Investment Research Center established under Ministry of Foreign Affairs 13 September, 2017 Ulaanbaatar Discussed to strengthening and enrichment of MongoliaChina-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership The fourth trilateral meeting of Mongolian President Kh.Battulga, Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin 9-10 June, 2018 Qingdao Source: Authors compiling from various sources Attended second BRI forum, Signed of bilateral cooperation documents including a plan to align the BRI with the Development Road program. Meeting of Mongolian President Kh.Battulga Chinese President Xi Jinping 24-28 April, 2019 Beijing Proposed to accelerate the construction of a network of cross-border highways, facilitate customs clearance, strengthen energy cooperation, and discuss the construction of regional power grids.

The fifth trilateral meeting of Mongolian President Kh.Battulga, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin 14 June, 2019 Bishkek Program of Mongolia-Russia-China Economic Corridor Projects under trilateral economic corridor: Transportation and infrastructure 13 Railway 7 Logistics 1 Road 4 Telecommunication 1 Industrial sector 2 Development of border- crossing points 1 Energy sector

1 Facilitation of trade and inspection procedures 4 Environment and ecology 3 Education, science and technology cooperation 3 Humanitarian3 Agriculture 1 Medical science 1 Total 32 Railway transit corridor Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Road transit corridor Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Table 1: Economic Impact of Corridor (2030, against baseline, million USD) Simulated by IDE-GSM model Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4a Mongolia China Russia Agriculture Automotive -0.7 0 0.1 18.1 0 0.9 E&E 0.2 21.1 15.9 Textile Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. Services 0.5 6 -0.1 8.8 15.8 51.1 56.5

1198.6 0.5 5.7 -1.4 8.5 Mining 1.7 -2.1 3.5 Total 16.5 1359.2 33.6 Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4b Agriculture Automotive Mongolia China Russia -1.2 -13.7 -0.2 0.1 1307 45.7

E&E Textile 0.2 -122.4 16.3 13.9 1416.4 12.1 Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. 43.7 839.5 172.1 19.2 -893.2 116 Services 125 -83.9 -4.6 Mining

Total 79.7 412.3 96.9 280.7 2862 454.4 Mining 9.9 14.7 1.6 Total 47.8 532 9.1 Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4c Mongolia China Russia Agriculture Automotive -0.3 0

0.1 2.3 0 0 E&E 0 9 1.1 Textile Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. Services 1.8 9.6 1.2 25.7 19.3 40 61.6 385 0 -0.2 1.1 5.5 Source: Kumagai Satoru, Gokan Toshitaka, Keola Souknilanh Economic impacts of economic corridors in Mongolia : an application of IDE-GSM IDE-JETRO 2018 Gross External Debt of Mongolia (bln.usd, percent)

Foreign Direct Investment Position of Mongolia (bln.usd percent) 25.0 20.7 35.0 35.00 30.0 30.00 14.0 11.0 20.0 23.6 15.0 25.0 12.0 25.00

10.0 20.00 8.0 20.0 29.5 15.00 6.0 15.0 10.0 10.00 4.0 10.0 3.24 5.00

4.9 5.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 China 2013 2014 2015 Total investment 2016 2017

2018 2019.03.31 China to total ratio Source: Bank of Mongolia 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 China total debt China total debt ratio 2016 2017

20182019.03.31 Total debt 0.0 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment to Mongolia by economic sector FDI inward flow from China reached 4.9 billion USD, which was 23.6% of total investment in 2018. (close to Lao PDR, 23%). Source: Ministry of Finance Cooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Policy coordination Facilities Connectivity Unimpeded Trade Financial Integration People to People Bond Activities China and Mongolia signed a cooperation plan to promote the alignment of the Chinaproposed Belt and Road initiative (BRI) with Development Road of Mongolia.

Three priority projects: 1) Central railway corridor, 2) Central Highway corridor 3) Energy sector (electricity transmission line) Logistic 1, Telecommunication 1, Development of border- crossing points 1, Facilitation of trade and inspection procedures-4 projects will be implemented to facilitate trade Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, BRICS new development bank, SCO Interbank Consortium, Silk road fund, Export Import bank of China - There are 6,268 students studying in China, of which 358 are through the agreement between the Governments in 2018. - The number of Chinese tourists increased by 8.5 and 15.1 percent respectively in 2017 and 2018, while tourists to China increased by 2.7 and 43.2 percent. National Working Group to Implement Mongolia-Russia-China Economic corridor National Working group headed by Vice Minister for Ministry of Foreign Affairs was established by Prime Ministers decree No133 of May 2017, which consists of 20 experts representing all ministries related the economic corridor. Since the establishment in 2017, National Working Group has held 5 meetings and discussed Mongolias policy and position towards the Central Railway Corridor and Central Road Corridor priority projects within the Economic Corridor Program, also exchanged views on determination of feasible trilateral projects on electrical gird renovation and measures to be taken until the trilateral meeting. Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia Non-refundable aid of 2 billion yuan granted by the Chinese government,

is going to be spent on ger area re-planning and rental apartment projects in between 2018-2020 to reduce air pollution. Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia The Mongolian and Chinese sides negotiated the general agreement on the soft loan amounting 1 billion USD, which has a payback period of 20 years. Following projects will be implemented with the soft loan : - Constructing electric power transmission line and sub-station between Ulaanbaatar and Mandalgobi - Reconstruction of Erdenet thermal power plant - Construction of new wastewater treatment plant Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia - Construction of 20.9km road from Gachuurt intersection to Nalaikh-Choir intersection - Construction of meat-processing plant and quarantine facility - Project on developing area of Tuul and Selbe rivers - Project on setting surveillance cameras in streets of Ulaanbaatar city and aimag centers - Project on building tunnel - Project on improving access, quality and control of communication sector Linkages between policy and SDG in Mongolia GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

2030 GREEN DEVELOPMENT POLICY OF MONGOLIA MONGOLIA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT VISION 2030 Source: ESCAP OBJECTIVE 1 OBJECTIVE 2 22 OBJECTIVES OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE 3 OBJECTIVE 4 12 OBJECTIVES OF SUSTAINABLE SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE 5 OBJECTIVE 6 6 OBJECTIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

4 OBJECTIVES OF GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Conclusion Evaluating the Socio-Economic Impact of Investment related to BRI in Mongolia Speed up BRI implementation - Legal environment - Feasibility study Need to study BRI activities to support SDG and Sustainable development vision of Mongolia Thank you for attention

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