Correlation and Covariance

Correlation and Covariance

Correlation and Covariance R. F. Riesenfeld (Based on web slides by James H. Steiger) Goals Introduce concepts of Covariance Correlation Develop computational formulas R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 2 Covariance Variables may change in relation to each

other Covariance measures how much the movement in one variable predicts the movement in a corresponding variable R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 3 Smoking and Lung Capacity Example: investigate relationship between cigarette smoking and lung capacity Data: sample group response data on smoking habits, and measured lung capacities, respectively R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010

CS5961 Comp Stat 4 Smoking v Lung Capacity Data N Cigarettes (X ) Lung Capacity (Y ) 1 2 0 5 45 42 3 10

33 4 15 31 5 20 29 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 5 Smoking and Lung Capacity 6

Smoking v Lung Capacity Observe that as smoking exposure goes up, corresponding lung capacity goes down Variables covary inversely Covariance and Correlation quantify relationship R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 7 Covariance Variables that covary inversely, like smoking and lung capacity, tend to appear on opposite sides of the group means

When smoking is above its group mean, lung capacity tends to be below its group mean. Average product of deviation measures extent to which variables covary, the degree of linkage between them R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 8 The Sample Covariance Similar to variance, for theoretical reasons, average is typically computed using (N -1), not N . Thus, 1 N S xy Xi X

N 1 i1 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat Y Y i 9 Calculating Covariance R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 Cigs (X ) 0 5 10 15 20

Lung Cap (Y ) 45 42 33 31 29 X 10 Y 36 CS5961 Comp Stat 10 Calculating Covariance Cigs (X ) ( X X ) ( X X ) (Y Y ) (Y Y ) Cap (Y ) 0 -10 -90 9

45 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 -30 0 -25 -70 6 -3 -5 -7

42 33 31 29 = -215 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 11 Covariance Calculation (2) Evaluation yields, S xy R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 1

( 215) 53.75 4 CS5961 Comp Stat 12 Covariance under Affine Transformation Let Li aX i b and M i cYi d . Then, l i a x i , m i c y i where, u i ui u . , Evaluating, in turn, gives, N S LM 1 l i m i

N 1 i 1 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 13 Covariance under Affine Transf Evaluating further, S LM (2) 1 N l i m i N 1 i1 1 N

a x i c y i N 1 i1 1 N ac x i y i N 1 i1 S LM acS xy R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 14 (Pearson) Correlation Coefficient rxy Like covariance, but uses Z-values instead of deviations. Hence, invariant under

linear transformation of the raw data. N 1 rxy zxi zyi N 1 i 1 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 15 Alternative (common) Expression rxy R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 sxy sx s y

CS5961 Comp Stat 16 Computational Formula 1 1 N X iYi sxy N 1 i 1 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 N N X i Yi i 1

i 1 N CS5961 Comp Stat 17 Computational Formula 2 rxy N XY R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010

2 N X X 2 X Y CS5961 Comp Stat 2 NY Y 2

18 Table for Calculating rxy Cigs (X ) = Y2 Cap (Y ) 0 2025 45 25 100 225 400

210 330 465 580 1764 1089 961 841 42 33 31 29 750 1585 6680 180

X2 XY 0 0 5 10 15 20 50 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 19 Computing rxy from Table rxy

5(1585) 50(180) 5(750 50 ) 5(6680) 180 2 2 7925 9000 3750 2500 33400 32400 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 20 Computing Correlation rxy

1075 1250 1000 rxy 0.9615 R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 21 rxy 0.96 Conclusion rxy = -0.96 implies almost certainty smoker will have diminish lung capacity Greater smoking exposure implies greater likelihood of lung damage R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 22

End Covariance Notes & Correlation R F Riesenfeld Sp 2010 CS5961 Comp Stat 23

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