Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Reference Case

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Reference Case

Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for Strategic and International Studies April 14, 2015 | Washington, D.C. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Key results from AEO2015 In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s Strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations through 2020 and limited growth in domestic demand after 2020 leads to a decline in net petroleum and other liquids imports The United States transitions from being a net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017 in all cases U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection with reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and trends driven by existing laws and regulations Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 2 Key results from AEO2015 (continued) Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the 2005 level through 2040 Growth of domestic crude oil and natural gas production varies significantly

across regions and cases, leading to shifts in crude oil and natural gas flows between regions, requiring infrastructure adjustments The AEO2015 cases generally reflect current policies, including final regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law; consistent with this approach, EPAs proposed Clean Power Plan rules for existing fossil-fired electric generating units or the effects of relaxing current limits on crude oil exports are not considered in AEO2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 3 Overview Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 4 Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel 160 History 2013 Projections AEO2014 120 80 AEO2015 40

0 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 5 Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 120 2013 Projections 2025 2040 100 Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 80 27% 8% 9% 10% 18% 19% 18%

8% 8% 8% Natural gas 60 40 Coal Nuclear 20 Liquid biofuels Petroleum and other liquids 29% 27% 1% 36% 1% 35% 1% 33% 0 80 983 986 989 992 995 998 001 004 007 010 013 01 6 019 022 02 5 028 031 03 4 037 04 0 9 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 6 U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu 2013 History 40 Projections 30 20 10 0 Low Oil Price

Reference -10 -20 High Oil Price -30 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 7 CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons 6,250 History 2013 6,000 Projections High Economic Growth 5,750 5,500 High Oil and Gas Resource Reference

5,250 5,000 Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 8 CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2.0 2013 Projections 2005 1.5 1.0 Energy use per capita 0.5 0.0 Energy use per 2009 dollar of GDP Carbon dioxide emissions per 2009 dollar GDP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 9 New AEO table browser Signature product redeveloped for EIAs state-of-the-art table browser experience Compares up to 6 cases from AEO Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 10 Petroleum and other liquid supply Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 11 AEO2015 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 250 High Oil Price 200 150

Reference 100 50 Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource 0 9 0 992 99 4 996 998 00 0 002 004 00 6 008 01 0 01 2 014 016 01 8 020 022 02 4 026 028 03 0 032 034 03 6 038 04 0 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 12 U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2013 2013 2013 20 High Oil and Gas Resource Reference Low Oil Price 15 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970

10 Tight oil 5 Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 13 Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply

regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs change between 2013 and 2040 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day 10 8 Dakotas/Rocky Mountains 11.0 6 4 2 8.5 West Coast Southwest East Gulf Coast 11.2 9.1 0 -2 Midcontinent 4.2 4.1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 14

Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 25 Projections 2013 2020 2040 20 14% 33% 15 Net petroleum and other liquids imports 14% 10 21% Natural gas plant liquids 21% 29% Tight oil production

22% 17% 5 Other crude oil production (excluding tight) 23% 17% 25% 27% 12% 12% 14% Other 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 15 Net liquids imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent 2013 History Projections 70 60 50

40 30 Low Oil Price 20 10 Reference 0 -10 High Oil Price -20 -30 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 16 In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 30 2013 Projections 2040 2030 25

24% 20 Diesel 10% Other* Jet fuel 3% 4% 15 31% 31% 1% 13% CNG/LNG 14% 4% Ethanol 2% 5% 3% 3% 10 5 0

1990 Motor gasoline 58% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 2020 2025 44% 48% 2030 2035 2040 *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen 17 U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of

domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas Reference Low Oil Price History Resource 2013 2013 2013 12 Total petroleum product net exports 12 Other petroleum Total petroleum product High Oil and Gas Resource 8 product exports net exports 4 8 Reference 0 Low Oil Price -4 Motor gasoline exports 4 Distillate exports 0 Other petroleum product imports -4

1990 2000 Motor gasoline imports Distillate imports 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 18 Natural gas Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 19

Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 12 9 Projections High Oil Price Reference 6 Low Oil Price 3 High Oil and Gas Resource 0 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 20 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 40 billion cubic feet per day Projections

2013 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas and tight oil plays 20 60 50 15 10 40 20 Coalbed methane 5 0 1990 30 Tight gas Other lower 48 onshore

1995 2000 10 Alaska Lower 48 offshore 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 21 Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 billion cubic feet per day

History Residential Projections Commercial Transportation** Electric power Industrial* 30 80 25 10.9 70 60 8.9 20 50 15 9.4 8.2 40 30 10

5 0 90 2005 0.9 3.3 1.6 4.9 4.2 2013 3.6 2020 2025 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 2030 2035 2040 20 10 0 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel

22 Growth in manufacturing output and use of natural gas reflect high natural gas supply and low prices, particularly in near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 20 Food 7 6 16 Bulk chemicals 5 12 4 Refining and related 3 2 1 0 8

Other manufacturing Metal based durables Iron and steel Paper 2010 Aluminum Glass 4 2025 2040 0 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 23 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet 16 History 2013 billion cubic feet per day 2013 Projections Lower 48 states LNG exports

12 8 2013 30 Alaska LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico 4 LNG imports -8 20 10 0 0 -4 40 Pipeline exports to Canada Reference Pipeline imports from Canada High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price -10 -20 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015

24 Electricity Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 25 Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040 Period Average Growth__ Electricity use GDP 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s 7.3 4.5 2013 1970s 4.7 3.2 1980s 2.9 3.1 1990s 2.4 3.2 2000-2013 0.7 1.9 2013-2040 0.8 2.4 U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 14

12 Stru c tura l History Cha nge in E con om y- Hig he r pr 10 8 Electricity use ices - St and ar ds - I mp rov

ed e ffici e Projections ncy 6 4 2 0 Gross domestic product Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 26 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% 6 History Projections 2013 1993 2040 2025 5

31% 4 27% Natural gas 13% 16% Renewables 18% 39% 38% Coal 34% Petroleum and other liquids 19% 1% 18% 1% Nuclear 16% 27% 3 13% 11%

2 53% 1 19% 0 1990 1995 4% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 1% 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 27 Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours

750 History Projections 2013 600 450 300 Conventional Hydroelectric Power Wind Solar 150 0 2000 Geothermal 2005 2010 2015 2020 Biomass Municipal waste/Landfill gas 2025 2030

2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 28 Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 2040 1,250 1,000 Wind 750 Solar 500 Biomass and waste Geothermal 250 Conventional hydroelectric power 0 2013 Reference

High Oil Price LowHigh Oil Price Oil and Gas Low Resource Economic High Growth Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 29 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 30 Preview of coming attractions Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 31 Upcoming: improved international energy web presence New data browser to replace IES Better map-based

navigations and visualizations Consolidate CABs/CANs Status: dev integration Launch: beta in April Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 32 Upcoming: EIA-930hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to continue Launch: TBD Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 33 Upcoming: Final four reports on EIA crude oil exports Over the next two months, the final four reports will cover: 1) technical options for U.S. refineries to facilitate the processing additional light tight oil 2) implications of increasing light tight oil production for the overall U.S. refining system 3) an update to EIAs May 29, 2014, report on projections of U.S. crude oil production by API gravity 4) the effects on oil prices, oil production, and oil trade if restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports were removed

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 34 Now playing: Crude by rail and EIA-914data updates Both high priority Crude by rail due out with PSM, March 30 Updated 914 expected in June with new data collection Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 35 Now playing: New Microsoft Excel add-in for Windows Enables spreadsheet users inside and outside of EIA to pull recent EIA/FRED data into their existing workbooks Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 36

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